Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Beck Way vs Tarik Skubal · 79°F

3.7% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

33.9%

Detroit Tigers win

66.1%

Fair line (home)

-195

Proj. total

8.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.31)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.02

Over

49.3%

Under

50.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	33.9%	+224	+195
Detroit Tigers	66.1%	-249	-195

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.598	.192	.016	.135	.326	1.440	.222	.281	.371	.652
Lane Thomas	4.5	.591	.187	.011	.121	.321	1.328	.221	.285	.360	.645
Salvador Perez	4.4	.626	.166	.003	.160	.159	1.071	.230	.270	.387	.657
Starling Marte	4.3	.741	.163	.012	.071	.210	1.155	.247	.296	.347	.643
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.588	.178	.019	.141	.307	.823	.241	.303	.408	.711
Nick Loftin	4.1	.605	.166	.025	.072	.310	.785	.234	.302	.351	.653
Isaac Collins	4.0	.549	.159	.010	.058	.341	1.072	.219	.298	.319	.617
Michael Massey	3.8	.602	.177	.008	.092	.143	.807	.240	.273	.369	.642
Tyler Tolbert	3.7	.564	.135	.012	.036	.182	1.086	.215	.264	.292	.556

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Colt Keith	4.7	.821	.198	.036	.131	.461	.806	.285	.362	.444	.806
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.796	.176	.005	.110	.638	.682	.280	.386	.413	.799
Dillon Dingler	4.5	.718	.210	.022	.160	.362	.902	.277	.349	.460	.809
Riley Greene	4.3	.703	.197	.016	.168	.500	1.028	.285	.373	.477	.850
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.513	.185	.006	.171	.551	1.058	.242	.351	.437	.788
Hao-Yu Lee	4.1	.674	.162	.029	.086	.358	.856	.256	.330	.384	.714
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.615	.145	.054	.070	.433	.708	.249	.339	.380	.719
Matt Vierling	3.9	.652	.159	.023	.089	.360	.727	.263	.339	.398	.736
Ben Malgeri	3.8	.583	.168	.029	.070	.369	.940	.252	.334	.381	.715

Data notes: away starter Beck Way: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Beck Way: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections