Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 23, 2026 · Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton · 76°F

1.9% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

34.4%

Detroit Tigers win

65.6%

Fair line (home)

-191

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.81)Detroit Tigers (mean 5.27)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.08

Over

51.3%

Under

48.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	34.4%	+201	+191
Detroit Tigers	65.6%	-222	-191

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.677	.203	.018	.148	.397	1.182	.245	.311	.404	.716
Lane Thomas	4.6	.647	.204	.012	.134	.390	1.072	.241	.313	.393	.706
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.669	.192	.021	.160	.379	.684	.257	.325	.432	.757
Salvador Perez	4.4	.674	.168	.004	.173	.187	.844	.247	.290	.416	.706
Michael Massey	4.3	.701	.209	.010	.113	.199	.725	.256	.295	.397	.692
Isaac Collins	4.2	.619	.180	.021	.067	.460	.908	.243	.336	.358	.694
Josh Rojas	4.0	.617	.183	.013	.062	.303	.822	.235	.295	.340	.636
Nick Loftin	3.9	.622	.168	.024	.075	.352	.573	.251	.326	.376	.702
Andrew Velazquez	3.8	.573	.137	.012	.054	.200	1.117	.215	.261	.305	.566

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.892	.243	.040	.091	.627	.453	.310	.407	.456	.863
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.873	.201	.006	.110	.572	.577	.295	.387	.430	.817
Colt Keith	4.5	.848	.200	.034	.124	.396	.653	.295	.363	.451	.814
Riley Greene	4.4	.794	.235	.016	.172	.469	.893	.311	.389	.511	.900
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.751	.213	.023	.147	.297	.730	.288	.348	.466	.814
Kerry Carpenter	4.2	.678	.150	.047	.183	.321	.813	.278	.344	.486	.831
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.561	.191	.005	.155	.487	.890	.257	.355	.445	.801
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.674	.151	.058	.069	.388	.601	.268	.346	.401	.747
James Outman	3.9	.529	.147	.035	.105	.408	1.069	.241	.333	.398	.731

Data notes: away starter Randy Dobnak: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Randy Dobnak: only 23 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections