Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Casey Mize · 82°F

0.8% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

38.6%

Detroit Tigers win

61.4%

Fair line (home)

-159

Proj. total

8.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.95)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.84)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.79

Over

48.4%

Under

43.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	38.6%	+159	+159
Detroit Tigers	61.4%	-174	-159

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.640	.211	.015	.151	.384	1.226	.237	.302	.399	.702
Lane Thomas	4.6	.648	.213	.010	.136	.372	1.111	.242	.310	.395	.706
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.682	.178	.026	.186	.273	1.127	.258	.310	.448	.759
Salvador Perez	4.4	.669	.167	.003	.174	.177	.860	.245	.285	.413	.698
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.639	.184	.020	.162	.350	.663	.259	.325	.443	.768
Nick Loftin	4.2	.646	.176	.026	.084	.361	.622	.248	.321	.376	.697
Michael Massey	4.0	.676	.200	.009	.114	.173	.700	.259	.295	.405	.700
Isaac Collins	3.9	.576	.170	.018	.068	.407	.888	.239	.327	.357	.684
Andrew Velazquez	3.8	.584	.134	.011	.053	.188	1.131	.217	.259	.304	.563

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Colt Keith	4.7	.831	.204	.032	.162	.377	.779	.290	.352	.468	.820
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.815	.229	.032	.111	.532	.523	.300	.387	.458	.844
Gleyber Torres	4.4	.804	.184	.004	.129	.497	.639	.287	.372	.436	.808
Kerry Carpenter	4.3	.663	.159	.048	.227	.287	.959	.275	.332	.510	.841
Riley Greene	4.2	.721	.203	.017	.195	.407	.976	.300	.372	.517	.889
Hao-Yu Lee	4.1	.686	.169	.030	.098	.285	.819	.259	.318	.398	.716
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.628	.150	.062	.087	.350	.705	.256	.327	.404	.731
Matt Vierling	3.9	.674	.170	.025	.097	.288	.707	.270	.330	.413	.743
Jake Rogers	3.8	.509	.139	.024	.131	.307	.988	.234	.302	.402	.704

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections