Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Dean Kremer vs Troy Melton · 79°F

0.9% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

44.0%

Detroit Tigers win

56.0%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.87

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.24)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.63)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.87

Over

39.1%

Under

50.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	44.0%	+127	+127
Detroit Tigers	56.0%	-138	-127

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.8	.709	.189	.016	.123	.516	1.063	.245	.331	.385	.716
Pete Alonso	4.7	.616	.187	.007	.233	.433	1.053	.251	.332	.468	.800
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.668	.200	.034	.172	.408	.921	.262	.334	.454	.788
Taylor Ward	4.4	.629	.175	.009	.138	.489	.998	.243	.332	.398	.729
Leody Taveras	4.3	.678	.140	.048	.085	.305	.952	.237	.294	.359	.653
Jackson Holliday	4.2	.623	.152	.025	.102	.424	.929	.240	.322	.376	.697
Coby Mayo	4.1	.506	.170	.010	.165	.324	1.182	.226	.294	.408	.702
Colton Cowser	4.0	.534	.144	.008	.135	.381	1.194	.229	.310	.387	.697
Yohel Pozo	3.9	.686	.185	.006	.102	.114	.534	.261	.286	.394	.680

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.793	.208	.033	.117	.559	.613	.286	.376	.441	.817
Gleyber Torres	4.5	.784	.177	.004	.138	.504	.742	.278	.362	.428	.790
Riley Greene	4.4	.708	.195	.018	.208	.411	1.119	.284	.355	.500	.855
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.675	.197	.021	.179	.259	.945	.268	.320	.463	.783
Colt Keith	4.2	.720	.168	.029	.148	.329	.789	.277	.338	.452	.790
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.500	.170	.005	.189	.427	1.115	.239	.326	.446	.772
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.590	.142	.057	.093	.357	.761	.246	.319	.395	.714
Eduardo Valencia	3.9	.587	.147	.014	.127	.273	.878	.246	.305	.403	.708
Javier Báez	3.7	.618	.147	.014	.113	.133	.808	.250	.283	.394	.677

Data notes: away starter Dean Kremer: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections