Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Tarik Skubal · 70°F

2.3% edge · Detroit Tigers

Baltimore Orioles win

36.3%

Detroit Tigers win

63.7%

Fair line (home)

-176

Proj. total

7.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.23)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.30)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.54

Over

44.8%

Under

55.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	36.3%	+154	+176
Detroit Tigers	63.7%	-168	-176

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.5	.596	.171	.009	.122	.419	1.296	.221	.299	.357	.656
Pete Alonso	4.4	.529	.161	.006	.196	.344	1.278	.223	.296	.413	.709
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.596	.177	.029	.133	.326	1.126	.236	.300	.396	.696
Tyler O'Neill	4.2	.502	.125	.008	.148	.338	1.437	.203	.275	.356	.630
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.529	.153	.016	.137	.135	1.376	.211	.244	.362	.607
Coby Mayo	4.0	.458	.157	.010	.136	.270	1.355	.205	.266	.362	.628
Leody Taveras	3.9	.573	.118	.028	.065	.214	1.068	.214	.261	.315	.575
Jeremiah Jackson	3.8	.556	.166	.008	.087	.119	1.004	.225	.255	.347	.602
Chadwick Tromp	3.6	.470	.121	.006	.064	.195	1.096	.193	.240	.288	.528

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.797	.182	.005	.113	.548	.691	.275	.366	.408	.774
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.764	.220	.029	.095	.548	.552	.286	.378	.431	.808
Hao-Yu Lee	4.3	.686	.173	.035	.094	.317	.922	.247	.307	.378	.685
Dillon Dingler	4.2	.673	.197	.022	.151	.292	.890	.267	.326	.445	.771
Riley Greene	4.1	.670	.195	.017	.166	.418	1.022	.283	.360	.480	.840
Eduardo Valencia	4.0	.620	.145	.012	.126	.296	.870	.243	.305	.391	.696
Spencer Torkelson	3.9	.464	.167	.004	.158	.450	1.033	.230	.326	.419	.745
Matt Vierling	3.8	.635	.155	.023	.081	.293	.732	.256	.318	.384	.702
Javier Báez	3.7	.631	.146	.015	.091	.141	.769	.252	.287	.381	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections