Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Framber Valdez · 73°F

2.3% edge · Detroit Tigers

Tampa Bay Rays win

52.5%

Detroit Tigers win

47.5%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

7.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.98)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.58)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.56

Over

44.4%

Under

55.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	52.5%	-127	-111
Detroit Tigers	47.5%	+117	+111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	4.9	5.0	1.2	1.9
Framber Valdez LHP · Detroit Tigers	5.6	4.4	5.7	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Drew Rasmussen4+ 75%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Framber Valdez4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.923	.208	.011	.114	.463	.651	.295	.371	.429	.800
Ryan Vilade	4.7	.722	.184	.021	.104	.374	1.060	.243	.311	.369	.680
Junior Caminero	4.6	.699	.169	.010	.219	.428	.820	.268	.342	.474	.815
Jonny DeLuca	4.5	.664	.195	.022	.096	.294	.855	.238	.296	.366	.662
Jonathan Aranda	4.3	.732	.167	.003	.105	.450	1.013	.263	.351	.391	.742
Jorge Mateo	4.2	.614	.198	.012	.082	.251	1.073	.229	.279	.347	.626
Nick Fortes	4.1	.698	.165	.007	.068	.203	.609	.243	.295	.342	.637
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.952	.122	.048	.010	.210	.361	.299	.338	.365	.703
Taylor Walls	3.9	.547	.133	.016	.036	.363	.934	.209	.289	.288	.576

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Colt Keith	4.5	.743	.171	.035	.127	.316	.920	.262	.319	.414	.733
Hao-Yu Lee	4.3	.667	.171	.025	.108	.238	1.018	.239	.288	.373	.661
Kevin McGonigle	4.3	.705	.174	.024	.115	.418	.670	.268	.344	.417	.762
Dillon Dingler	4.2	.607	.169	.018	.158	.211	1.001	.246	.296	.421	.717
Brett Callahan	4.0	.609	.138	.034	.086	.196	1.085	.228	.275	.349	.624
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.568	.144	.046	.067	.305	.816	.229	.296	.351	.647
Spencer Torkelson	3.8	.434	.147	.004	.150	.344	1.136	.213	.292	.389	.682
Max Clark	3.7	.574	.136	.035	.082	.285	.811	.244	.309	.378	.687
Javier Báez	3.6	.576	.138	.010	.076	.114	.851	.233	.267	.346	.613

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections