Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs Troy Melton · 79°F

3.5% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.5%

Detroit Tigers win

49.5%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.31)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.41

Over

53.4%

Under

46.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	50.5%	+109	-102
Detroit Tigers	49.5%	-118	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	5.1	4.9	2.2	2.3
Troy Melton RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.4	4.0	5.5	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Freddy Peralta4+ 76%6+ 39%8+ 13%

Troy Melton4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.879	.202	.010	.157	.434	.668	.289	.360	.449	.809
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.753	.176	.004	.154	.470	1.106	.261	.344	.416	.759
Junior Caminero	4.6	.670	.168	.010	.278	.402	.819	.271	.338	.517	.856
Liam Hicks	4.5	.740	.156	.013	.112	.458	.557	.258	.345	.389	.734
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.002	.132	.049	.014	.221	.404	.289	.327	.355	.682
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.619	.182	.021	.121	.258	.835	.237	.289	.385	.674
Richie Palacios	4.1	.602	.156	.024	.070	.444	.773	.233	.322	.345	.667
Jorge Mateo	4.0	.563	.178	.010	.096	.227	1.035	.224	.271	.353	.624
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.526	.137	.026	.114	.333	.831	.227	.298	.376	.675

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Callahan	4.6	.650	.148	.040	.118	.290	1.230	.226	.286	.364	.651
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.690	.183	.023	.143	.573	.702	.270	.369	.440	.809
Gleyber Torres	4.3	.651	.156	.003	.125	.538	.833	.247	.346	.389	.736
Colt Keith	4.3	.664	.159	.030	.139	.367	.876	.258	.327	.422	.749
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.562	.164	.015	.177	.269	1.022	.241	.304	.432	.736
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.559	.140	.044	.081	.390	.821	.228	.311	.359	.670
Spencer Torkelson	3.9	.421	.144	.005	.180	.452	1.158	.218	.316	.420	.735
Max Clark	3.8	.578	.128	.031	.103	.366	.808	.246	.325	.391	.716
Hao-Yu Lee	3.7	.537	.140	.020	.109	.261	.874	.237	.300	.387	.687

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections