Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Casey Legumina vs Jackson Jobe · 77°F

1.2% edge · Detroit Tigers

Tampa Bay Rays win

53.4%

Detroit Tigers win

46.6%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

8.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.57)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.06)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.63

Over

55.4%

Under

44.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	53.4%	-126	-115
Detroit Tigers	46.6%	+116	+115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Casey Legumina RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.2	1.7	2.2	0.8	0.9
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.5	3.0	4.8	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Casey Legumina4+ 8%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Jackson Jobe4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.878	.203	.010	.157	.494	.642	.289	.368	.449	.817
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.788	.178	.004	.150	.521	1.045	.269	.360	.422	.781
Junior Caminero	4.6	.660	.175	.009	.285	.460	.779	.271	.347	.523	.871
Liam Hicks	4.5	.754	.155	.013	.109	.511	.536	.261	.357	.390	.747
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.026	.131	.053	.016	.246	.383	.294	.335	.362	.697
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.633	.192	.019	.128	.298	.807	.244	.303	.398	.700
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.565	.148	.028	.129	.391	.857	.230	.308	.386	.693
Richie Palacios	4.1	.597	.149	.020	.070	.474	.719	.233	.329	.344	.673
Taylor Walls	4.0	.542	.135	.027	.051	.422	.894	.213	.301	.310	.611

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.5	.719	.167	.004	.134	.533	.787	.257	.349	.402	.751
Hao-Yu Lee	4.4	.683	.169	.026	.129	.292	.963	.245	.302	.394	.696
Kevin McGonigle	4.3	.690	.176	.027	.129	.510	.619	.270	.361	.432	.793
Dillon Dingler	4.2	.602	.169	.016	.170	.264	.960	.245	.306	.428	.734
Eduardo Valencia	4.1	.618	.157	.010	.193	.261	.919	.256	.311	.453	.764
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.577	.141	.045	.074	.362	.782	.231	.308	.355	.663
Spencer Torkelson	3.9	.445	.153	.003	.168	.413	1.114	.222	.311	.413	.724
Javier Báez	3.8	.601	.142	.012	.094	.136	.843	.235	.271	.359	.630
Max Clark	3.7	.559	.127	.032	.086	.330	.742	.243	.317	.378	.695

Data notes: home starter Jackson Jobe: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jackson Jobe: only 21 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections