Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Joe Ryan vs Troy Melton · 75°F

2.6% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

50.6%

Detroit Tigers win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.28)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.99)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.26

Over

51.9%

Under

48.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	50.6%	+104	-102
Detroit Tigers	49.4%	-113	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Joe Ryan RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	5.5	5.1	1.5	2.2
Troy Melton RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.5	4.1	5.5	1.8	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Joe Ryan4+ 82%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Troy Melton4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.823	.215	.011	.091	.421	.725	.268	.346	.388	.734
Brooks Lee	4.7	.738	.157	.026	.148	.277	.715	.246	.295	.396	.691
Kody Clemens	4.5	.585	.152	.051	.192	.293	.982	.232	.288	.429	.717
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.626	.184	.015	.159	.456	.805	.252	.340	.428	.768
Josh Bell	4.3	.660	.152	.011	.133	.396	.798	.245	.320	.393	.713
Royce Lewis	4.2	.600	.176	.007	.164	.311	.892	.244	.304	.420	.724
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.634	.163	.011	.117	.396	.822	.251	.328	.396	.724
Kaelen Culpepper	4.0	.647	.143	.015	.117	.260	.809	.249	.306	.391	.698
Walker Jenkins	3.9	.592	.162	.026	.099	.338	.747	.250	.322	.396	.718

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Colt Keith	4.5	.750	.169	.034	.142	.308	.986	.261	.317	.419	.736
Kevin McGonigle	4.4	.712	.190	.021	.141	.432	.710	.269	.346	.434	.780
Gleyber Torres	4.3	.696	.156	.002	.111	.427	.862	.250	.330	.378	.708
Riley Greene	4.2	.614	.182	.012	.179	.362	1.240	.258	.328	.453	.781
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.603	.167	.015	.164	.212	1.056	.247	.300	.427	.727
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.591	.145	.045	.077	.312	.855	.235	.303	.363	.666
Spencer Torkelson	3.9	.447	.154	.004	.161	.359	1.184	.219	.301	.404	.705
Max Clark	3.8	.586	.133	.036	.093	.289	.830	.245	.310	.385	.695
John Peck	3.7	.607	.149	.019	.078	.136	1.004	.245	.280	.366	.646

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections