Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Mason Adams vs Framber Valdez · 74°F

0.6% edge · Detroit Tigers

Colorado Rockies win

36.7%

Detroit Tigers win

63.3%

Fair line (home)

-173

Proj. total

9.52

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.18)Detroit Tigers (mean 5.34)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.52

Over

55.3%

Under

36.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	36.7%	+163	+173
Detroit Tigers	63.3%	-178	-173

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.3	3.1	5.4	1.5	2.5
Framber Valdez LHP · Detroit Tigers	5.6	4.7	5.8	1.7	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Mason Adams4+ 37%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Framber Valdez4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.891	.182	.075	.084	.296	.707	.280	.336	.413	.749
Connor Norby	4.7	.742	.234	.008	.114	.372	1.113	.259	.327	.398	.724
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.759	.188	.043	.080	.291	.955	.255	.314	.377	.692
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.586	.188	.021	.203	.313	1.180	.245	.306	.450	.756
Kyle Karros	4.3	.740	.213	.027	.086	.422	.839	.276	.355	.411	.767
Adael Amador	4.2	.692	.164	.015	.082	.370	.643	.249	.322	.365	.687
Troy Johnston	4.1	.719	.199	.025	.070	.287	.723	.268	.329	.389	.718
Jordan Beck	4.0	.599	.163	.033	.093	.299	1.031	.240	.302	.377	.679
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.606	.187	.017	.085	.210	.898	.244	.290	.374	.663

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.873	.243	.033	.152	.553	.511	.313	.399	.498	.896
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.886	.202	.004	.125	.531	.645	.300	.385	.444	.829
Colt Keith	4.5	.882	.205	.041	.140	.370	.711	.309	.371	.481	.853
Riley Greene	4.4	.765	.225	.015	.203	.456	.960	.308	.386	.529	.914
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.734	.209	.018	.181	.258	.812	.289	.345	.487	.833
Max Clark	4.2	.770	.178	.048	.100	.375	.663	.290	.360	.443	.803
John Peck	4.1	.813	.201	.023	.101	.192	.841	.296	.338	.439	.777
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.686	.159	.059	.074	.353	.618	.273	.346	.413	.759
Javier Báez	3.9	.728	.185	.019	.100	.138	.670	.282	.318	.424	.742

Data notes: away starter Mason Adams: only 31 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mason Adams: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections