Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Keider Montero · 75°F

2.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

47.3%

Detroit Tigers win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

8.52

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.29)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.52

Over

46.4%

Under

53.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	47.3%	+117	+111
Detroit Tigers	52.7%	-126	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.5	4.9	6.0	1.4	2.6
Keider Montero RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.6	3.0	4.7	1.4	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Zebby Matthews4+ 73%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Keider Montero4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.843	.198	.012	.098	.426	.662	.271	.351	.392	.744
Brooks Lee	4.7	.740	.160	.027	.156	.282	.664	.249	.300	.405	.705
Kody Clemens	4.5	.589	.162	.044	.192	.310	.941	.235	.295	.432	.727
Josh Bell	4.5	.680	.150	.012	.156	.406	.783	.249	.324	.409	.733
Kaelen Culpepper	4.3	.701	.158	.018	.129	.288	.814	.251	.310	.396	.707
Trevor Larnach	4.2	.634	.176	.012	.133	.413	.795	.252	.331	.411	.742
Royce Lewis	4.1	.581	.179	.008	.163	.320	.832	.246	.309	.427	.736
Victor Caratini	4.0	.650	.118	.006	.092	.315	.692	.240	.317	.353	.670
Walker Jenkins	3.9	.623	.163	.025	.101	.346	.711	.260	.333	.408	.740

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.807	.198	.027	.137	.444	.620	.285	.359	.447	.806
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.737	.190	.026	.124	.267	.937	.259	.309	.407	.716
Colt Keith	4.3	.765	.177	.033	.129	.322	.811	.276	.334	.434	.768
Riley Greene	4.2	.667	.197	.015	.175	.372	1.093	.274	.342	.470	.812
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.661	.183	.015	.153	.221	.927	.262	.312	.436	.749
Brett Callahan	4.0	.670	.146	.032	.101	.208	.980	.251	.298	.387	.685
Max Clark	3.9	.657	.152	.040	.086	.299	.739	.260	.321	.396	.717
Ben Malgeri	3.8	.592	.159	.025	.107	.261	.994	.252	.310	.403	.713
John Peck	3.7	.651	.168	.022	.079	.141	.913	.262	.296	.389	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections