Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Gabriel Hughes vs Jackson Jobe · 73°F

2.5% edge · Detroit Tigers

Colorado Rockies win

37.0%

Detroit Tigers win

63.0%

Fair line (home)

-170

Proj. total

9.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.32)Detroit Tigers (mean 5.42)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.74

Over

46.8%

Under

43.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	37.0%	+148	+170
Detroit Tigers	63.0%	-162	-170

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gabriel Hughes RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.5	3.5	5.6	1.7	2.7
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.7	3.3	5.0	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Gabriel Hughes4+ 48%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Jackson Jobe4+ 42%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.854	.179	.075	.108	.326	.704	.276	.336	.425	.761
Adael Amador	4.7	.715	.168	.023	.111	.466	.682	.244	.326	.375	.701
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.737	.178	.065	.104	.349	.915	.261	.327	.410	.737
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.760	.191	.022	.115	.476	.638	.278	.364	.426	.789
Mickey Moniak	4.4	.614	.160	.051	.194	.239	1.001	.250	.297	.457	.754
Troy Johnston	4.2	.715	.195	.021	.087	.324	.727	.264	.331	.393	.724
Vimael Machín	4.1	.686	.167	.022	.087	.336	.677	.255	.320	.380	.700
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.578	.164	.032	.093	.270	.641	.232	.289	.367	.656
Zac Veen	3.9	.567	.154	.039	.137	.304	.895	.251	.315	.431	.746

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.889	.244	.032	.155	.557	.512	.317	.402	.502	.904
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.831	.220	.028	.145	.354	.827	.289	.351	.457	.808
Colt Keith	4.5	.848	.207	.040	.149	.383	.723	.304	.368	.483	.851
Riley Greene	4.4	.770	.232	.013	.200	.450	.974	.309	.384	.527	.911
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.747	.199	.017	.190	.272	.818	.291	.348	.494	.841
Max Clark	4.2	.774	.181	.046	.104	.383	.680	.293	.363	.448	.811
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.568	.196	.004	.186	.457	.965	.266	.357	.479	.836
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.677	.161	.056	.079	.372	.626	.273	.348	.416	.764
John Peck	3.9	.760	.190	.022	.089	.182	.811	.291	.332	.429	.760

Data notes: home starter Jackson Jobe: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections