Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Tanner Gordon vs Andrew Sears · 78°F

3.3% edge · Detroit Tigers

Colorado Rockies win

35.9%

Detroit Tigers win

64.1%

Fair line (home)

-179

Proj. total

9.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.33)Detroit Tigers (mean 5.56)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.89

Over

58.8%

Under

41.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	35.9%	+150	+179
Detroit Tigers	64.1%	-164	-179

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.3	3.1	5.6	1.1	2.8
Andrew Sears LHP · Detroit Tigers	3.9	3.2	4.0	1.3	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Tanner Gordon4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Andrew Sears4+ 40%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.849	.173	.063	.106	.312	.721	.271	.331	.411	.743
Connor Norby	4.7	.712	.223	.008	.133	.398	1.107	.256	.329	.407	.737
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.565	.182	.018	.260	.332	1.207	.245	.307	.483	.791
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.743	.190	.020	.118	.446	.666	.271	.354	.420	.774
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.690	.168	.045	.092	.300	.921	.250	.313	.384	.697
Kyle Karros	4.3	.680	.189	.027	.101	.435	.815	.265	.349	.410	.760
Jordan Beck	4.1	.571	.164	.031	.116	.320	1.061	.233	.298	.385	.683
Adael Amador	4.0	.600	.143	.012	.094	.373	.605	.235	.313	.360	.673
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.591	.179	.015	.105	.222	.898	.244	.291	.387	.678

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.881	.230	.032	.189	.476	.489	.319	.392	.525	.917
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.824	.205	.029	.175	.297	.773	.291	.344	.476	.820
Colt Keith	4.5	.857	.212	.044	.173	.319	.673	.312	.366	.511	.876
Riley Greene	4.4	.752	.230	.014	.248	.382	.933	.315	.380	.569	.949
Eduardo Valencia	4.3	.733	.196	.011	.247	.217	.756	.297	.339	.536	.875
Max Clark	4.2	.752	.173	.047	.130	.320	.652	.290	.349	.462	.812
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.561	.183	.004	.231	.385	.928	.271	.348	.516	.863
Brett Callahan	3.9	.706	.160	.038	.135	.201	.823	.283	.328	.457	.785
John Peck	3.8	.742	.185	.019	.108	.157	.775	.292	.329	.444	.773

Data notes: home starter Andrew Sears: only 18 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Andrew Sears: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections