Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Richard Lovelady vs Framber Valdez · 63°F

2.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

42.0%

Detroit Tigers win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.89)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.40)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.29

Over

51.3%

Under

48.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	42.0%	+145	+138
Detroit Tigers	58.0%	-158	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Richard Lovelady LHP · Washington Nationals	2.1	1.9	2.1	0.9	0.9
Framber Valdez LHP · Detroit Tigers	5.6	5.2	5.4	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Richard Lovelady4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Framber Valdez4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.649	.215	.012	.161	.675	1.309	.255	.366	.432	.798
Andrés Chaparro	4.7	.628	.212	.004	.140	.411	1.032	.234	.309	.386	.695
Brady House	4.5	.765	.205	.014	.099	.255	1.104	.254	.302	.379	.680
CJ Abrams	4.4	.642	.190	.023	.121	.344	.916	.244	.319	.394	.714
Dylan Crews	4.3	.644	.174	.018	.092	.317	.962	.235	.302	.358	.660
Yohandy Morales	4.2	.669	.184	.007	.098	.289	1.100	.245	.304	.372	.675
Harry Ford	4.1	.561	.159	.004	.065	.473	.975	.220	.320	.321	.641
Jacob Young	4.0	.719	.158	.020	.045	.280	.663	.257	.320	.348	.668
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.679	.084	.022	.024	.347	.779	.230	.304	.287	.591

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.765	.192	.038	.120	.635	.589	.280	.384	.438	.821
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.712	.193	.030	.117	.379	.943	.256	.327	.403	.730
Ben Malgeri	4.4	.670	.187	.027	.101	.410	1.108	.249	.330	.387	.717
Riley Greene	4.3	.654	.202	.015	.161	.492	1.086	.273	.362	.462	.824
Dillon Dingler	4.2	.631	.188	.017	.148	.283	.903	.256	.321	.429	.749
Max Clark	4.1	.672	.168	.037	.086	.439	.734	.265	.351	.403	.754
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.485	.159	.005	.148	.501	1.058	.231	.337	.408	.745
John Peck	3.9	.667	.166	.019	.067	.233	.915	.254	.307	.366	.673
Zach McKinstry	3.8	.556	.141	.044	.058	.389	.676	.239	.325	.359	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections