Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson · 62°F

1.8% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

44.5%

Detroit Tigers win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.88)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.16)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.04

Over

41.4%

Under

50.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	44.5%	+130	+125
Detroit Tigers	55.5%	-141	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Riley Cornelio RHP · Washington Nationals	2.3	2.2	2.1	1.1	0.9
Drew Anderson RHP · Detroit Tigers	2.3	2.3	2.1	0.9	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Riley Cornelio4+ 16%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Drew Anderson4+ 18%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.582	.198	.010	.174	.714	1.362	.242	.361	.427	.788
Daylen Lile	4.6	.723	.189	.062	.108	.320	.877	.254	.313	.404	.718
Dylan Crews	4.5	.631	.166	.017	.117	.332	1.081	.226	.294	.360	.653
CJ Abrams	4.4	.605	.189	.025	.132	.372	.953	.240	.318	.400	.718
Andrés Chaparro	4.3	.542	.180	.004	.148	.397	1.008	.226	.306	.389	.695
Jorbit Vivas	4.2	.632	.156	.011	.049	.453	.640	.230	.325	.318	.643
Yohandy Morales	4.1	.600	.168	.009	.117	.276	1.133	.236	.294	.377	.671
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.651	.167	.004	.088	.214	.466	.245	.295	.364	.659
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.630	.080	.021	.029	.374	.823	.220	.302	.281	.582

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.750	.167	.003	.106	.645	.786	.260	.368	.385	.754
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.690	.174	.027	.120	.405	.966	.250	.325	.396	.720
Kevin McGonigle	4.4	.719	.182	.033	.110	.627	.570	.280	.387	.435	.822
Eduardo Valencia	4.3	.663	.169	.011	.159	.301	.910	.255	.316	.424	.740
Ben Malgeri	4.2	.604	.167	.027	.090	.406	1.104	.238	.322	.371	.693
Max Clark	4.1	.643	.157	.036	.091	.443	.755	.258	.345	.397	.742
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.457	.155	.003	.150	.520	1.078	.225	.335	.404	.740
Javier Báez	3.9	.631	.160	.016	.083	.176	.824	.245	.289	.366	.654
John Peck	3.7	.625	.162	.016	.069	.226	.912	.251	.304	.367	.671

Data notes: away starter Riley Cornelio: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Riley Cornelio: only 71 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections