Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 21, 2026 · DJ Herz vs River Ryan · 58°F

0.8% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

45.1%

Detroit Tigers win

54.9%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

8.07

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.93)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.15)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.07

Over

41.9%

Under

58.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	45.1%	+121	+122
Detroit Tigers	54.9%	-132	-122

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
DJ Herz LHP · Washington Nationals	5.0	5.3	4.7	2.2	2.2
River Ryan RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.1	4.0	5.0	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

DJ Herz4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 14%

River Ryan4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.640	.210	.011	.174	.674	1.258	.257	.368	.444	.811
Daylen Lile	4.6	.744	.191	.064	.107	.294	.796	.258	.313	.407	.720
Abimelec Ortiz	4.5	.579	.184	.007	.142	.355	1.016	.222	.291	.373	.664
CJ Abrams	4.4	.633	.192	.024	.132	.320	.890	.245	.315	.404	.719
Dylan Crews	4.3	.620	.162	.018	.108	.300	.958	.230	.296	.363	.659
Jorbit Vivas	4.2	.651	.160	.014	.047	.414	.588	.234	.323	.323	.646
Brady House	4.1	.670	.170	.010	.098	.225	1.010	.247	.295	.373	.668
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.688	.168	.003	.084	.201	.422	.253	.299	.367	.666
Jacob Young	3.9	.655	.153	.019	.044	.273	.636	.247	.312	.339	.651

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.727	.171	.004	.108	.646	.796	.258	.368	.387	.755
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.667	.180	.025	.115	.404	1.011	.245	.320	.387	.707
Riley Greene	4.4	.630	.190	.016	.172	.541	1.147	.266	.362	.461	.823
Eduardo Valencia	4.3	.627	.166	.010	.171	.329	.967	.250	.316	.429	.746
Ben Malgeri	4.2	.607	.166	.027	.100	.409	1.105	.243	.326	.382	.709
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.592	.169	.018	.147	.285	.950	.250	.316	.424	.740
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.439	.154	.004	.150	.523	1.120	.221	.333	.402	.736
Javier Báez	3.8	.616	.152	.015	.085	.182	.851	.241	.286	.362	.648
John Peck	3.7	.607	.143	.018	.073	.236	.939	.245	.300	.360	.660

Data notes: home starter River Ryan: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter River Ryan: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · away starter DJ Herz: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter DJ Herz: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections