Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe · 64°F

1.6% edge · Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.4%

Detroit Tigers win

51.6%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.40)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.77

Over

48.5%

Under

43.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.4%	-104	+107
Detroit Tigers	51.6%	-104	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.8	4.5	5.0	2.2	2.4
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.8	4.4	5.0	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Bubba Chandler4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Jackson Jobe4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.861	.193	.045	.096	.340	1.104	.268	.330	.396	.726
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.644	.179	.007	.197	.453	1.233	.241	.319	.424	.743
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.690	.189	.015	.120	.498	1.060	.248	.339	.390	.730
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.594	.163	.019	.170	.540	1.335	.239	.336	.419	.755
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.802	.211	.021	.065	.317	.745	.272	.334	.383	.717
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.701	.162	.008	.119	.417	.813	.256	.336	.395	.731
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.623	.165	.014	.120	.398	1.070	.244	.320	.390	.710
Spencer Horwitz	4.1	.627	.184	.010	.084	.497	.665	.256	.356	.384	.740
Jake Mangum	4.0	.773	.171	.019	.038	.208	.701	.269	.318	.355	.674

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Max Clark	4.7	.737	.180	.045	.094	.529	.897	.258	.350	.394	.743
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.695	.177	.029	.119	.422	.993	.250	.328	.395	.723
Kevin McGonigle	4.4	.711	.188	.032	.109	.619	.623	.275	.381	.428	.809
Eduardo Valencia	4.3	.661	.186	.009	.161	.321	.977	.258	.322	.432	.754
Riley Greene	4.2	.627	.184	.015	.152	.529	1.104	.267	.366	.450	.815
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.602	.172	.017	.138	.310	.943	.249	.321	.415	.736
Brett Callahan	4.0	.623	.151	.032	.087	.295	1.041	.244	.312	.374	.686
Spencer Torkelson	3.9	.449	.153	.003	.139	.523	1.095	.224	.339	.398	.737
John Peck	3.8	.635	.159	.017	.070	.248	.942	.252	.310	.367	.676

Data notes: home starter Jackson Jobe: only 48 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections