Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

September 26, 2026 · Kirby Yates vs Justin Verlander · 65°F

0.3% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.2%

Detroit Tigers win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.18)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.08)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.25

Over

43.5%

Under

56.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.2%	-105	+103
Detroit Tigers	50.8%	-115	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kirby Yates RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.1	2.4	1.9	1.0	0.8
Justin Verlander RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.4	3.8	4.4	1.4	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Kirby Yates4+ 20%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Justin Verlander4+ 53%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ryan O'Hearn	4.8	.775	.185	.009	.148	.401	.883	.258	.328	.407	.735
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.612	.172	.009	.208	.406	1.190	.237	.309	.429	.738
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.674	.189	.013	.125	.430	1.042	.247	.328	.392	.720
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.579	.157	.017	.180	.475	1.300	.237	.324	.423	.747
Konnor Griffin	4.3	.778	.168	.042	.089	.270	.980	.269	.324	.398	.722
Spencer Horwitz	4.2	.650	.193	.009	.096	.473	.688	.255	.347	.389	.736
Ronny Simon	4.1	.713	.179	.014	.062	.315	.760	.255	.317	.359	.676
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.561	.179	.010	.102	.264	.729	.229	.287	.365	.652
Henry Davis	3.9	.492	.139	.005	.120	.314	.891	.214	.290	.359	.649

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Max Clark	4.6	.720	.167	.038	.088	.514	.968	.250	.342	.376	.718
Hao-Yu Lee	4.5	.676	.173	.025	.107	.406	1.089	.243	.320	.378	.698
Kevin McGonigle	4.4	.688	.173	.031	.102	.641	.680	.267	.379	.412	.790
Eduardo Valencia	4.3	.632	.171	.009	.152	.315	1.058	.245	.310	.409	.719
Riley Greene	4.2	.589	.182	.013	.143	.498	1.207	.253	.348	.427	.775
Dillon Dingler	4.1	.582	.167	.016	.128	.302	1.015	.241	.313	.398	.711
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.437	.154	.004	.140	.524	1.209	.216	.331	.388	.719
Zach McKinstry	3.9	.540	.138	.045	.055	.421	.795	.229	.323	.344	.667
Javier Báez	3.7	.575	.150	.018	.075	.165	.908	.232	.278	.349	.627

Data notes: home starter Justin Verlander: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Justin Verlander: only 6 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections