Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Spencer Arrighetti · 83°F

7.2% edge · Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays win

43.8%

Houston Astros win

56.3%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

9.69

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.69)Houston Astros (mean 5.01)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.69

Over

47.1%

Under

43.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	43.8%	-108	+129
Houston Astros	56.3%	-100	-129

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.830	.194	.012	.208	.582	.748	.294	.389	.493	.882
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.661	.167	.005	.194	.690	1.262	.257	.378	.447	.826
Junior Caminero	4.7	.640	.175	.005	.329	.524	.881	.279	.366	.564	.930
Cedric Mullins	4.6	.552	.153	.020	.154	.521	1.062	.221	.319	.385	.704
Jonny DeLuca	4.5	.583	.182	.028	.139	.372	1.012	.232	.306	.394	.700
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.934	.111	.048	.020	.310	.534	.277	.333	.344	.677
Ben Williamson	4.2	.718	.179	.016	.043	.392	.906	.252	.331	.343	.673
Taylor Walls	4.1	.504	.122	.030	.055	.515	1.066	.199	.306	.296	.601
Nick Fortes	4.0	.599	.151	.006	.113	.274	.702	.239	.308	.377	.684

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.6	.789	.197	.009	.190	.352	.707	.279	.340	.464	.804
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.724	.214	.009	.325	.540	.641	.325	.414	.633	1.047
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.623	.171	.007	.228	.453	.620	.266	.356	.490	.846
Christian Walker	4.3	.581	.173	.010	.258	.342	.897	.261	.329	.508	.837
Cam Smith	4.2	.653	.170	.024	.145	.342	.945	.260	.329	.432	.761
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.508	.157	.025	.162	.406	1.126	.233	.316	.423	.740
Yainer Diaz	4.0	.715	.179	.011	.178	.157	.558	.284	.317	.478	.795
Jake Meyers	3.9	.658	.159	.015	.103	.279	.691	.263	.324	.404	.728
Nick Allen	3.8	.663	.153	.007	.054	.268	.647	.254	.313	.349	.662

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections