Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Mason Englert vs Peter Lambert · 85°F

0.7% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

49.1%

Houston Astros win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.85)Houston Astros (mean 4.69)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.54

Over

42.7%

Under

47.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	49.1%	+102	+103
Houston Astros	50.8%	-111	-103

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.9	.873	.206	.015	.205	.542	.705	.300	.386	.497	.883
Jonathan Aranda	4.8	.717	.183	.005	.195	.633	1.203	.267	.374	.457	.831
Junior Caminero	4.7	.677	.188	.007	.324	.477	.825	.284	.361	.563	.924
Cedric Mullins	4.6	.599	.172	.020	.156	.489	.980	.233	.323	.401	.724
Chandler Simpson	4.5	1.001	.119	.057	.022	.295	.517	.288	.338	.360	.698
Ben Williamson	4.4	.758	.198	.022	.049	.388	.892	.261	.333	.359	.693
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.601	.161	.018	.132	.378	.956	.236	.309	.390	.699
Richie Palacios	4.1	.587	.140	.029	.074	.525	.855	.232	.339	.350	.689
Hunter Feduccia	4.0	.518	.133	.019	.085	.511	1.109	.216	.320	.337	.658

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.7	.750	.178	.008	.190	.415	.821	.268	.340	.450	.790
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.672	.203	.007	.301	.633	.753	.308	.415	.601	1.015
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.575	.161	.007	.220	.520	.723	.253	.357	.471	.829
Christian Walker	4.3	.532	.153	.009	.245	.399	1.037	.243	.323	.478	.800
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.2	.537	.136	.014	.135	.606	1.023	.230	.348	.389	.738
Cam Smith	4.1	.583	.150	.021	.140	.384	1.071	.243	.323	.409	.731
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.446	.141	.024	.143	.458	1.226	.215	.312	.391	.703
Nick Allen	3.9	.641	.142	.007	.056	.322	.769	.239	.307	.330	.637
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.578	.124	.005	.103	.259	.723	.232	.291	.359	.650

Data notes: away starter Mason Englert: only 45 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mason Englert: only 65 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections