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6.8% edge · Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
July 4, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Hunter Brown · 85°F
Tampa Bay Rays win
42.2%
Houston Astros win
57.8%
Fair line (home)
-137
Proj. total
8.27
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.90)Houston Astros (mean 4.37)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.27
Over
42.4%
Under
45.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 42.2% | -100 | +137 |
| Houston Astros | 57.8% | -108 | -137 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.7 | .668 | .166 | .005 | .161 | .575 | 1.386 | .244 | .346 | .405 | .750 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.6 | .652 | .174 | .006 | .294 | .440 | .969 | .271 | .344 | .527 | .871 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.5 | .550 | .158 | .020 | .134 | .441 | 1.152 | .214 | .297 | .363 | .660 |
| Ryan Vilade | 4.4 | .635 | .168 | .021 | .098 | .397 | 1.211 | .232 | .308 | .359 | .667 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 4.3 | .580 | .166 | .017 | .116 | .354 | 1.142 | .224 | .293 | .363 | .655 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 4.2 | .563 | .163 | .027 | .117 | .290 | 1.047 | .225 | .286 | .371 | .657 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.1 | .567 | .133 | .027 | .065 | .495 | .968 | .223 | .326 | .331 | .657 |
| Taylor Walls | 4.0 | .491 | .121 | .026 | .050 | .453 | 1.139 | .197 | .293 | .289 | .583 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.9 | .474 | .120 | .014 | .065 | .451 | 1.211 | .199 | .298 | .300 | .598 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 4.5 | .744 | .180 | .007 | .169 | .347 | .878 | .264 | .326 | .433 | .758 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.4 | .688 | .209 | .009 | .268 | .547 | .821 | .305 | .399 | .573 | .973 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .578 | .170 | .007 | .196 | .456 | .789 | .250 | .344 | .453 | .798 |
| Christian Walker | 4.2 | .552 | .156 | .010 | .213 | .328 | 1.081 | .241 | .309 | .452 | .761 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 4.1 | .543 | .131 | .013 | .120 | .518 | 1.079 | .225 | .328 | .369 | .697 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .581 | .150 | .021 | .114 | .324 | 1.133 | .236 | .307 | .383 | .689 |
| Yainer Diaz | 3.9 | .685 | .173 | .012 | .148 | .154 | .701 | .272 | .305 | .444 | .749 |
| Taylor Trammell | 3.8 | .426 | .131 | .022 | .124 | .366 | 1.256 | .207 | .291 | .368 | .659 |
| Nick Allen | 3.7 | .626 | .141 | .007 | .045 | .261 | .787 | .242 | .301 | .328 | .629 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Brown: only 55 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hunter Brown: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections