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2.5% edge · Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
July 17, 2026 · Dean Kremer vs Peter Lambert · 85°F
Baltimore Orioles win
50.3%
Houston Astros win
49.7%
Fair line (home)
+101
Proj. total
10.87
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.65)Houston Astros (mean 5.22)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
10.87
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 50.3% | +105 | -101 |
| Houston Astros | 49.7% | -114 | +101 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 5.0 | .711 | .205 | .037 | .257 | .549 | .998 | .276 | .362 | .516 | .878 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.9 | .723 | .182 | .019 | .195 | .618 | .744 | .265 | .362 | .456 | .819 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .645 | .175 | .010 | .213 | .655 | 1.054 | .257 | .366 | .463 | .830 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.6 | .566 | .179 | .005 | .319 | .536 | 1.059 | .265 | .362 | .549 | .911 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.5 | .596 | .165 | .011 | .252 | .427 | 1.101 | .251 | .327 | .483 | .810 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.4 | .602 | .167 | .014 | .152 | .607 | .997 | .247 | .354 | .418 | .772 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.3 | .534 | .149 | .007 | .200 | .500 | 1.286 | .236 | .332 | .438 | .770 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.2 | .495 | .170 | .009 | .226 | .411 | 1.196 | .240 | .322 | .471 | .793 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.1 | .577 | .132 | .022 | .134 | .504 | .962 | .244 | .343 | .407 | .750 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.7 | .872 | .218 | .013 | .178 | .270 | .783 | .293 | .342 | .471 | .814 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.6 | .725 | .222 | .008 | .352 | .571 | .744 | .330 | .420 | .657 | 1.077 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.5 | .637 | .174 | .007 | .247 | .468 | .714 | .271 | .360 | .508 | .868 |
| Christian Walker | 4.4 | .578 | .165 | .008 | .274 | .360 | 1.027 | .259 | .328 | .511 | .839 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.3 | .718 | .171 | .012 | .189 | .336 | .752 | .280 | .340 | .475 | .816 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 4.2 | .581 | .137 | .013 | .149 | .541 | .997 | .246 | .350 | .417 | .767 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .618 | .172 | .022 | .151 | .318 | .976 | .260 | .325 | .441 | .766 |
| Lucas Spence | 3.9 | .557 | .154 | .031 | .108 | .310 | 1.078 | .237 | .305 | .388 | .693 |
| Christian Vázquez | 3.8 | .623 | .139 | .006 | .109 | .235 | .705 | .246 | .296 | .380 | .676 |
Data notes: away starter Dean Kremer: only 62 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Dean Kremer: only 24 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections