Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Spencer Arrighetti · 85°F

1.7% edge · Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles win

48.0%

Houston Astros win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

10.65

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.42)Houston Astros (mean 5.23)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.65

Over

54.4%

Under

36.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	48.0%	-103	+108
Houston Astros	51.9%	-105	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Adley Rutschman	5.0	.697	.190	.015	.193	.672	.833	.258	.363	.446	.809
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.638	.193	.030	.238	.578	1.069	.261	.358	.491	.849
Taylor Ward	4.7	.606	.163	.009	.210	.704	1.124	.248	.368	.452	.820
Pete Alonso	4.6	.543	.160	.005	.301	.573	1.131	.255	.363	.526	.889
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.570	.150	.010	.249	.458	1.179	.243	.327	.472	.798
Dylan Beavers	4.4	.578	.160	.015	.140	.646	1.058	.239	.357	.403	.760
Colton Cowser	4.3	.507	.141	.007	.195	.534	1.359	.229	.335	.428	.763
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.549	.156	.015	.204	.243	1.267	.238	.293	.444	.737
Jackson Holliday	4.1	.539	.130	.025	.133	.528	.987	.237	.344	.403	.746

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.890	.216	.012	.170	.291	.748	.296	.348	.468	.816
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.751	.212	.008	.314	.622	.705	.328	.426	.626	1.052
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.653	.181	.008	.222	.488	.666	.272	.364	.492	.856
Jose Altuve	4.4	.738	.183	.011	.175	.382	.731	.279	.346	.462	.808
Christian Walker	4.3	.586	.171	.009	.250	.372	.961	.264	.336	.507	.843
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.758	.198	.010	.184	.183	.643	.290	.325	.485	.810
Cam Smith	4.1	.625	.167	.019	.142	.348	.948	.259	.329	.431	.760
Zach Dezenzo	4.0	.588	.162	.006	.117	.369	1.125	.246	.321	.393	.714
Lucas Spence	3.8	.546	.150	.029	.092	.337	1.016	.236	.311	.376	.687

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections