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4.3% edge · Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
July 19, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Hunter Brown · 85°F
Baltimore Orioles win
43.3%
Houston Astros win
56.8%
Fair line (home)
-131
Proj. total
9.68
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.69)Houston Astros (mean 5.00)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.68
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 43.3% | +106 | +131 |
| Houston Astros | 56.8% | -115 | -131 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.8 | .642 | .195 | .032 | .206 | .521 | 1.160 | .253 | .340 | .459 | .799 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .609 | .180 | .009 | .179 | .607 | 1.225 | .240 | .344 | .421 | .766 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.6 | .609 | .169 | .014 | .133 | .600 | 1.206 | .232 | .336 | .382 | .718 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.5 | .536 | .166 | .006 | .272 | .476 | 1.191 | .248 | .339 | .499 | .838 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.4 | .572 | .154 | .011 | .218 | .392 | 1.236 | .240 | .313 | .450 | .763 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .643 | .126 | .045 | .100 | .359 | 1.101 | .234 | .301 | .366 | .667 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.2 | .499 | .133 | .008 | .173 | .446 | 1.403 | .221 | .312 | .402 | .715 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.1 | .462 | .159 | .010 | .183 | .394 | 1.287 | .224 | .306 | .424 | .730 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.0 | .517 | .128 | .023 | .117 | .456 | 1.032 | .227 | .322 | .379 | .701 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 4.7 | .791 | .187 | .014 | .204 | .395 | .786 | .282 | .346 | .477 | .823 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .741 | .210 | .007 | .342 | .583 | .706 | .332 | .424 | .651 | 1.075 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.4 | .633 | .177 | .007 | .238 | .478 | .676 | .271 | .360 | .503 | .863 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 4.3 | .591 | .141 | .015 | .155 | .590 | 1.005 | .243 | .351 | .414 | .766 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.2 | .777 | .195 | .011 | .198 | .184 | .635 | .293 | .327 | .494 | .821 |
| Lucas Spence | 4.1 | .586 | .167 | .033 | .103 | .343 | 1.095 | .237 | .308 | .382 | .690 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .615 | .163 | .025 | .156 | .335 | .926 | .263 | .330 | .450 | .780 |
| Raynel Delgado | 3.9 | .656 | .151 | .017 | .071 | .284 | .858 | .249 | .309 | .359 | .668 |
| Nick Allen | 3.8 | .678 | .147 | .009 | .058 | .288 | .712 | .257 | .317 | .354 | .671 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Brown: only 73 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections