Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Ronel Blanco · 85°F

4.4% edge · Houston Astros

Miami Marlins win

42.5%

Houston Astros win

57.5%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

9.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.54)Houston Astros (mean 4.96)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.5

Over

55.1%

Under

44.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	42.5%	+109	+135
Houston Astros	57.5%	-118	-135

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.566	.165	.035	.243	.515	1.536	.237	.326	.463	.789
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.563	.156	.019	.239	.528	1.371	.235	.327	.455	.782
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.908	.132	.054	.064	.521	.681	.285	.369	.391	.760
Liam Hicks	4.5	.723	.143	.017	.144	.534	.643	.263	.361	.419	.780
Griffin Conine	4.4	.527	.140	.009	.213	.467	1.488	.228	.316	.432	.748
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.519	.132	.033	.102	.569	1.056	.214	.327	.351	.678
Joe Mack	4.2	.525	.131	.009	.170	.395	1.186	.222	.301	.397	.697
Graham Pauley	4.1	.482	.163	.011	.139	.389	1.036	.217	.296	.381	.677
Javier Sanoja	4.0	.642	.186	.032	.084	.282	.472	.258	.315	.395	.710

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.6	.873	.210	.013	.169	.241	.675	.292	.340	.464	.804
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.740	.219	.008	.317	.525	.668	.325	.412	.626	1.037
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.642	.177	.007	.241	.419	.635	.273	.358	.508	.867
Jose Altuve	4.3	.744	.174	.012	.173	.311	.670	.278	.335	.458	.793
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.2	.582	.142	.015	.147	.516	.935	.243	.343	.410	.753
Yainer Diaz	4.1	.744	.191	.010	.180	.151	.594	.286	.316	.477	.793
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.496	.158	.022	.158	.387	1.112	.233	.314	.423	.737
Zach Dezenzo	3.9	.571	.152	.007	.121	.321	1.069	.241	.310	.391	.702
Lucas Spence	3.8	.533	.150	.029	.090	.295	.962	.235	.305	.374	.679

Data notes: home starter Ronel Blanco: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ronel Blanco: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections