Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Peter Lambert · 85°F

0.6% edge · Houston Astros

Miami Marlins win

47.7%

Houston Astros win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

9.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.87)Houston Astros (mean 4.79)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.66

Over

57.2%

Under

35.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	47.7%	+103	+110
Houston Astros	52.3%	-112	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.9	.912	.206	.033	.135	.379	.694	.287	.348	.439	.787
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.592	.188	.035	.237	.492	1.397	.249	.336	.478	.814
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.583	.160	.020	.229	.538	1.248	.242	.336	.459	.795
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.917	.137	.056	.058	.505	.620	.290	.372	.395	.767
Liam Hicks	4.5	.737	.146	.015	.134	.527	.578	.267	.366	.417	.784
Griffin Conine	4.4	.542	.152	.010	.206	.468	1.374	.237	.327	.442	.769
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.703	.210	.034	.086	.306	.459	.264	.321	.401	.721
Joe Mack	4.1	.529	.133	.007	.172	.385	1.100	.227	.305	.406	.711
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.560	.153	.025	.114	.382	1.011	.240	.326	.393	.719

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.863	.223	.014	.154	.276	.735	.291	.345	.457	.803
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.750	.209	.008	.297	.577	.713	.324	.419	.611	1.030
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.643	.177	.006	.206	.472	.684	.267	.361	.476	.838
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.3	.612	.146	.015	.130	.568	.993	.243	.351	.396	.747
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.775	.195	.012	.171	.168	.647	.286	.320	.468	.787
Christian Walker	4.1	.545	.157	.009	.217	.345	.940	.250	.323	.472	.795
Lucas Spence	4.0	.567	.164	.033	.081	.326	1.073	.233	.307	.364	.671
Nick Allen	3.9	.694	.158	.010	.047	.289	.725	.254	.316	.344	.660
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.617	.134	.007	.091	.239	.672	.242	.295	.361	.657

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections