Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai · 85°F

1.7% edge · Houston Astros

Miami Marlins win

44.7%

Houston Astros win

55.3%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

9.65

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.70)Houston Astros (mean 4.95)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.65

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.7%	+111	+124
Houston Astros	55.3%	-121	-124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.9	.902	.207	.037	.126	.392	.774	.285	.348	.433	.781
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.557	.170	.032	.209	.537	1.503	.232	.329	.438	.766
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.556	.156	.018	.209	.551	1.332	.231	.329	.432	.761
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.896	.133	.050	.052	.525	.680	.282	.370	.380	.750
Liam Hicks	4.5	.717	.141	.015	.125	.562	.630	.262	.369	.406	.776
Griffin Conine	4.3	.504	.144	.010	.195	.490	1.456	.224	.320	.420	.740
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.519	.129	.034	.100	.589	1.034	.218	.338	.357	.695
Javier Sanoja	4.1	.662	.207	.030	.080	.309	.480	.258	.319	.392	.711
Joe Mack	4.0	.515	.130	.008	.149	.393	1.156	.224	.306	.389	.695

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.859	.216	.013	.144	.327	.729	.286	.347	.442	.789
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.715	.216	.008	.283	.691	.690	.317	.428	.598	1.026
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.636	.182	.006	.193	.557	.678	.265	.371	.466	.837
Jose Altuve	4.4	.735	.170	.013	.160	.410	.732	.272	.345	.443	.788
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.3	.560	.140	.013	.120	.680	.985	.234	.363	.383	.746
Christian Walker	4.2	.541	.155	.010	.208	.412	.950	.246	.331	.462	.793
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.477	.148	.023	.146	.497	1.170	.225	.327	.404	.731
Lucas Spence	4.0	.552	.155	.031	.078	.387	1.028	.232	.318	.361	.679
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.600	.137	.005	.091	.294	.692	.238	.302	.358	.660

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections