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6.6% edge · Houston AstrosTexas Rangers vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
August 1, 2026 · Jacob deGrom vs Ronel Blanco · 85°F
Texas Rangers win
47.1%
Houston Astros win
52.9%
Fair line (home)
-112
Proj. total
9.45
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Texas Rangers (mean 4.73)Houston Astros (mean 4.72)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.45
Over
54.4%
Under
37.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 47.1% | -121 | +112 |
| Houston Astros | 52.9% | +112 | -112 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.8 | .565 | .125 | .022 | .281 | .644 | 1.207 | .240 | .351 | .484 | .836 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.7 | .606 | .163 | .023 | .241 | .586 | 1.157 | .251 | .349 | .477 | .825 |
| Corey Seager | 4.6 | .598 | .160 | .004 | .268 | .579 | 1.044 | .257 | .355 | .499 | .854 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.5 | .646 | .152 | .019 | .194 | .493 | 1.063 | .254 | .344 | .448 | .792 |
| Evan Carter | 4.4 | .529 | .140 | .034 | .161 | .552 | 1.138 | .226 | .331 | .407 | .738 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.3 | .641 | .177 | .017 | .134 | .278 | 1.097 | .243 | .298 | .397 | .694 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.2 | .670 | .152 | .008 | .088 | .453 | .846 | .249 | .341 | .366 | .707 |
| Elias Díaz | 4.1 | .545 | .138 | .004 | .146 | .287 | 1.079 | .221 | .281 | .376 | .656 |
| Nicky Lopez | 4.0 | .678 | .117 | .020 | .031 | .347 | .704 | .237 | .311 | .307 | .618 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .788 | .201 | .011 | .174 | .228 | .971 | .274 | .320 | .448 | .768 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .660 | .192 | .007 | .321 | .515 | .914 | .303 | .390 | .603 | .993 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .578 | .165 | .005 | .232 | .413 | .895 | .253 | .337 | .478 | .815 |
| Christian Walker | 4.3 | .519 | .152 | .008 | .253 | .306 | 1.194 | .239 | .302 | .477 | .779 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.2 | .704 | .180 | .011 | .191 | .154 | .826 | .273 | .304 | .468 | .772 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.0 | .642 | .148 | .012 | .171 | .300 | .879 | .262 | .321 | .446 | .767 |
| Taylor Trammell | 3.9 | .424 | .132 | .018 | .165 | .350 | 1.376 | .209 | .285 | .395 | .681 |
| Cam Smith | 3.8 | .534 | .144 | .022 | .144 | .284 | 1.076 | .242 | .306 | .420 | .725 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 3.7 | .465 | .104 | .011 | .126 | .443 | 1.055 | .220 | .320 | .377 | .697 |
Data notes: home starter Ronel Blanco: only 30 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ronel Blanco: only 11 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections