← Slate

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Trey Yesavage vs Hayden Wesneski · 83°F
1.0% edge · Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays win
44.6%
Houston Astros win
55.4%
Fair line (home)
-124
Proj. total
10.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%13%03691215182124Runs scored
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.89)Houston Astros (mean 5.16)

Totals

O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
10.06
Over
60.1%
Under
40.0%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Toronto Blue Jays44.6%+115+124
Houston Astros55.4%-125-124

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Nathan Lukes4.8.850.215.016.134.387.826.275.339.423.762
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.4.7.770.201.002.249.525.682.294.379.524.903
Kazuma Okamoto4.6.580.167.004.276.3881.127.246.318.486.804
George Springer4.5.629.158.012.229.451.926.256.338.472.810
Alejandro Kirk4.4.717.157.006.164.462.614.267.349.436.785
Jesús Sánchez4.3.609.183.013.185.3411.077.252.318.447.766
Ernie Clement4.2.780.212.016.104.188.442.279.316.419.736
Andrés Giménez4.1.645.157.014.123.222.790.250.308.397.705
Myles Straw4.0.648.144.011.051.318.804.236.300.324.624

Houston Astros — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Jeremy Peña4.7.826.208.012.164.335.868.283.345.452.797
Yordan Alvarez4.6.676.201.007.318.708.816.315.429.6221.051
Isaac Paredes4.5.585.164.006.222.579.763.258.368.479.848
Daulton Varsho4.3.541.168.030.202.4151.072.241.319.454.773
Christian Walker4.3.514.159.009.239.4201.079.244.328.481.809
Jose Altuve4.1.646.159.011.162.397.811.263.339.443.781
Taylor Trammell4.0.449.134.019.154.4901.303.215.317.396.713
Yainer Diaz3.9.664.170.009.167.195.690.272.313.458.770
Cam Smith3.8.534.150.019.128.365.991.245.324.413.737
Data notes: home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 10 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 15 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections