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2.7% edge · Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
August 3, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier · 85°F
Toronto Blue Jays win
46.6%
Houston Astros win
53.4%
Fair line (home)
-115
Proj. total
10.18
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.02)Houston Astros (mean 5.16)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.18
Over
50.8%
Under
38.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 46.6% | +123 | +115 |
| Houston Astros | 53.4% | -134 | -115 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes | 4.9 | .834 | .194 | .014 | .139 | .454 | .801 | .270 | .344 | .416 | .759 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.8 | .730 | .190 | .004 | .278 | .623 | .669 | .293 | .392 | .545 | .937 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.7 | .560 | .160 | .004 | .286 | .464 | 1.116 | .244 | .328 | .491 | .819 |
| George Springer | 4.5 | .603 | .157 | .012 | .234 | .515 | .932 | .253 | .345 | .475 | .820 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.4 | .693 | .144 | .005 | .178 | .533 | .609 | .263 | .358 | .441 | .799 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 4.3 | .579 | .174 | .010 | .204 | .404 | 1.067 | .248 | .325 | .455 | .780 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.2 | .750 | .195 | .016 | .107 | .219 | .447 | .268 | .312 | .406 | .718 |
| Andrés Giménez | 4.1 | .615 | .152 | .011 | .125 | .277 | .776 | .241 | .309 | .388 | .697 |
| Myles Straw | 4.0 | .619 | .144 | .013 | .053 | .365 | .818 | .229 | .303 | .321 | .624 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.7 | .864 | .228 | .012 | .166 | .249 | .761 | .293 | .341 | .466 | .807 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .746 | .215 | .008 | .305 | .552 | .750 | .323 | .413 | .614 | 1.027 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.4 | .662 | .181 | .007 | .224 | .432 | .700 | .274 | .358 | .495 | .853 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.3 | .575 | .179 | .033 | .206 | .316 | .983 | .249 | .308 | .465 | .773 |
| Christian Walker | 4.2 | .577 | .163 | .010 | .233 | .331 | .986 | .256 | .323 | .486 | .808 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.1 | .702 | .180 | .012 | .167 | .295 | .723 | .280 | .336 | .466 | .802 |
| Taylor Trammell | 4.0 | .496 | .154 | .023 | .157 | .390 | 1.203 | .231 | .312 | .419 | .730 |
| Yainer Diaz | 3.9 | .716 | .184 | .009 | .171 | .149 | .628 | .289 | .320 | .481 | .801 |
| Cam Smith | 3.8 | .592 | .163 | .019 | .124 | .302 | .907 | .260 | .325 | .427 | .752 |
Data notes: home starter Cristian Javier: only 45 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Cristian Javier: only 56 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Shane Bieber: only 64 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections