Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · George Kirby vs Peter Lambert · 72°F

5.5% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

52.9%

Houston Astros win

47.1%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.83)Houston Astros (mean 4.25)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.08

Over

51.4%

Under

48.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	52.9%	+107	-112
Houston Astros	47.1%	-116	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.9	.740	.190	.020	.129	.488	.860	.250	.335	.393	.729
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.610	.182	.011	.184	.546	1.187	.243	.353	.430	.782
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.639	.173	.012	.250	.416	1.044	.257	.329	.483	.812
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.688	.167	.012	.244	.377	.971	.271	.341	.497	.838
Josh Naylor	4.4	.688	.172	.003	.191	.436	.661	.267	.346	.457	.804
Brendan Donovan	4.3	.695	.174	.012	.113	.461	.641	.263	.355	.405	.760
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.400	.121	.002	.266	.562	1.200	.219	.330	.474	.805
Victor Robles	4.1	.628	.167	.011	.065	.339	.919	.237	.316	.341	.657
Brock Rodden	4.0	.501	.147	.009	.094	.298	1.189	.206	.274	.329	.603

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.5	.798	.207	.011	.141	.212	.825	.272	.318	.426	.744
Yordan Alvarez	4.4	.689	.194	.008	.279	.455	.822	.300	.381	.569	.950
Isaac Paredes	4.3	.602	.173	.007	.193	.369	.761	.253	.334	.452	.786
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.492	.162	.022	.145	.345	1.371	.214	.285	.381	.666
Jose Altuve	4.1	.676	.161	.010	.147	.271	.805	.260	.314	.423	.737
Daulton Varsho	4.0	.509	.167	.028	.164	.265	.968	.234	.291	.427	.718
Christian Walker	3.9	.500	.146	.010	.189	.264	1.004	.236	.298	.441	.739
Cam Smith	3.8	.545	.141	.023	.119	.248	.989	.238	.296	.393	.690
Christian Vázquez	3.7	.580	.120	.005	.082	.191	.742	.229	.275	.339	.614

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections