Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Jameson Taillon vs Hunter Brown · 85°F

3.3% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

36.3%

Houston Astros win

63.7%

Fair line (home)

-176

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.08)Houston Astros (mean 5.17)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.25

Over

52.6%

Under

39.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	36.3%	+197	+176
Houston Astros	63.7%	-218	-176

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.800	.201	.016	.112	.410	.868	.263	.333	.395	.728
Kazuma Okamoto	4.6	.575	.167	.005	.244	.420	1.229	.238	.316	.457	.773
Jesús Sánchez	4.5	.633	.183	.013	.174	.386	1.216	.245	.316	.423	.739
George Springer	4.4	.601	.151	.012	.190	.484	.987	.245	.335	.437	.773
Brandon Valenzuela	4.3	.524	.131	.006	.126	.387	1.284	.202	.278	.335	.613
Josh Smith	4.2	.600	.149	.016	.093	.448	.937	.233	.329	.358	.688
Ernie Clement	4.1	.749	.201	.018	.093	.196	.491	.274	.314	.407	.721
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.615	.151	.013	.102	.227	.857	.240	.300	.372	.672
Myles Straw	3.9	.606	.136	.013	.045	.335	.857	.228	.299	.312	.611

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.6	.871	.216	.013	.187	.249	.709	.299	.346	.486	.832
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.734	.210	.006	.342	.531	.683	.331	.417	.650	1.067
Jose Altuve	4.4	.769	.187	.012	.193	.330	.718	.288	.346	.484	.829
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.589	.175	.032	.221	.306	.928	.258	.316	.487	.803
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.514	.166	.022	.183	.402	1.206	.237	.316	.440	.756
Christian Walker	4.1	.552	.154	.011	.248	.320	.905	.260	.326	.507	.833
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.0	.564	.133	.013	.144	.488	.921	.248	.347	.419	.766
Yainer Diaz	3.9	.694	.168	.009	.200	.140	.593	.290	.320	.504	.823
Nick Allen	3.7	.653	.156	.009	.061	.261	.698	.255	.312	.359	.671

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections