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2.3% edge · Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds
August 15, 2026 · Emerson Hancock vs Hayden Wesneski · 72°F
Seattle Mariners win
45.5%
Houston Astros win
54.5%
Fair line (home)
-120
Proj. total
9.24
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Seattle Mariners (mean 4.52)Houston Astros (mean 4.72)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.24
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 45.5% | +105 | +120 |
| Houston Astros | 54.5% | -114 | -120 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan | 4.8 | .792 | .189 | .014 | .134 | .446 | .763 | .265 | .346 | .411 | .757 |
| Randy Arozarena | 4.7 | .602 | .178 | .008 | .180 | .466 | 1.253 | .238 | .336 | .418 | .755 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.6 | .607 | .172 | .009 | .244 | .364 | 1.110 | .248 | .314 | .470 | .783 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.5 | .680 | .163 | .011 | .242 | .319 | 1.041 | .268 | .329 | .491 | .820 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.3 | .675 | .167 | .004 | .187 | .369 | .702 | .262 | .331 | .449 | .780 |
| Cole Young | 4.3 | .636 | .157 | .018 | .120 | .365 | .835 | .244 | .320 | .389 | .708 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.1 | .397 | .113 | .002 | .270 | .473 | 1.261 | .216 | .313 | .471 | .784 |
| Victor Robles | 4.0 | .616 | .168 | .011 | .057 | .288 | .965 | .233 | .303 | .331 | .634 |
| Brock Rodden | 3.9 | .503 | .136 | .007 | .093 | .256 | 1.216 | .205 | .266 | .324 | .590 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .798 | .206 | .013 | .149 | .274 | .781 | .274 | .331 | .434 | .766 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .701 | .203 | .008 | .290 | .584 | .756 | .312 | .411 | .595 | 1.006 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.4 | .603 | .164 | .006 | .210 | .480 | .705 | .259 | .359 | .471 | .829 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.3 | .548 | .177 | .030 | .189 | .338 | .982 | .241 | .308 | .446 | .755 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.2 | .678 | .161 | .011 | .155 | .348 | .764 | .264 | .331 | .434 | .765 |
| Christian Walker | 4.1 | .513 | .148 | .009 | .219 | .341 | .981 | .242 | .317 | .465 | .782 |
| Taylor Trammell | 4.0 | .449 | .144 | .021 | .148 | .415 | 1.223 | .216 | .306 | .395 | .701 |
| Cam Smith | 3.9 | .569 | .150 | .021 | .127 | .322 | .951 | .249 | .321 | .413 | .734 |
| Christian Vázquez | 3.7 | .576 | .125 | .006 | .088 | .248 | .724 | .230 | .287 | .346 | .633 |
Data notes: home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections