Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown · 72°F

0.9% edge · Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners win

45.0%

Houston Astros win

55.0%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.16)Houston Astros (mean 4.36)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.53

Over

54.2%

Under

45.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	45.0%	+113	+122
Houston Astros	55.0%	-123	-122

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.8	.764	.186	.013	.113	.489	.845	.256	.345	.388	.733
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.563	.176	.008	.149	.499	1.345	.223	.328	.383	.711
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.604	.164	.010	.203	.382	1.204	.238	.308	.430	.738
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.667	.158	.010	.205	.348	1.121	.258	.325	.454	.780
Josh Naylor	4.3	.674	.161	.003	.160	.406	.776	.257	.332	.423	.756
Cole Young	4.2	.622	.155	.018	.098	.407	.888	.237	.321	.366	.687
Cal Raleigh	4.1	.389	.111	.003	.221	.518	1.315	.203	.311	.422	.734
Weston Wilson	4.0	.459	.111	.009	.113	.400	1.333	.194	.281	.325	.605
Brock Rodden	3.9	.489	.130	.007	.076	.264	1.313	.196	.259	.300	.559

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.5	.779	.199	.011	.147	.227	.864	.269	.318	.426	.744
Yordan Alvarez	4.4	.652	.201	.008	.294	.500	.849	.299	.388	.584	.972
Isaac Paredes	4.3	.563	.159	.006	.207	.394	.815	.245	.331	.452	.783
Jose Altuve	4.2	.650	.161	.011	.160	.298	.862	.253	.311	.424	.734
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.506	.162	.030	.179	.287	1.042	.231	.291	.431	.722
Christian Walker	4.0	.497	.143	.010	.213	.282	1.067	.235	.299	.453	.752
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.9	.490	.117	.012	.118	.459	1.077	.217	.317	.362	.679
Yainer Diaz	3.8	.635	.164	.008	.148	.140	.697	.265	.297	.438	.735
Nick Allen	3.6	.590	.135	.006	.044	.241	.802	.230	.287	.313	.600

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections