Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Walbert Ureña vs Ethan Pecko · 72°F

1.2% edge · Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels win

40.5%

Houston Astros win

59.5%

Fair line (home)

-147

Proj. total

9.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.43)Houston Astros (mean 5.18)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.61

Over

56.1%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	40.5%	+135	+147
Houston Astros	59.5%	-147	-147

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.5	3.7	4.8	3.0	2.6
Ethan Pecko RHP · Houston Astros	4.9	4.3	5.0	2.0	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Walbert Ureña4+ 50%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Ethan Pecko4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wade Meckler	4.8	.830	.191	.016	.078	.489	1.029	.259	.338	.366	.704
Mike Trout	4.7	.543	.150	.007	.241	.753	1.285	.242	.370	.469	.840
Nolan Schanuel	4.6	.786	.183	.005	.118	.534	.603	.273	.366	.409	.775
Zach Neto	4.5	.564	.178	.016	.199	.380	1.202	.238	.316	.439	.755
Moisés Ballesteros	4.4	.705	.168	.007	.137	.398	.808	.257	.329	.407	.735
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.687	.176	.005	.110	.337	.800	.251	.318	.383	.701
Josh Lowe	4.2	.558	.168	.011	.155	.352	1.168	.235	.303	.407	.711
Denzer Guzman	4.1	.565	.150	.010	.138	.283	1.041	.231	.290	.387	.677
Oswald Peraza	3.9	.552	.113	.016	.124	.255	1.053	.222	.283	.364	.647

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.846	.213	.016	.143	.388	.777	.283	.356	.440	.796
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.708	.207	.006	.244	.876	.676	.314	.453	.569	1.022
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.623	.176	.011	.187	.635	.625	.262	.383	.461	.844
Jose Altuve	4.4	.737	.166	.016	.137	.494	.725	.270	.358	.426	.783
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.3	.571	.145	.011	.105	.783	.916	.237	.383	.375	.759
Cam Smith	4.2	.607	.156	.030	.139	.456	.958	.250	.340	.420	.761
Christian Walker	4.1	.527	.153	.008	.183	.472	.935	.243	.342	.444	.786
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.451	.138	.027	.148	.547	1.105	.223	.339	.410	.749
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.615	.136	.005	.086	.342	.710	.239	.312	.353	.665

Data notes: home starter Ethan Pecko: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ethan Pecko: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections