Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert · 72°F

6.6% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

44.2%

Houston Astros win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.40)Houston Astros (mean 4.67)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.08

Over

51.2%

Under

48.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	44.2%	+160	+126
Houston Astros	55.8%	-175	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.7	4.5	4.6	2.1	2.3
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	4.7	5.2	2.3	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Peter Lambert4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wade Meckler	4.8	.822	.178	.013	.082	.509	1.081	.255	.338	.360	.697
Mike Trout	4.7	.541	.139	.008	.245	.768	1.324	.239	.372	.467	.839
Nolan Schanuel	4.6	.774	.182	.004	.131	.572	.640	.274	.375	.421	.796
Zach Neto	4.5	.545	.166	.015	.206	.400	1.279	.232	.317	.435	.752
Moisés Ballesteros	4.4	.676	.174	.006	.146	.416	.847	.253	.328	.410	.739
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.697	.176	.004	.115	.331	.848	.253	.320	.389	.709
Josh Lowe	4.2	.550	.160	.014	.166	.373	1.205	.235	.307	.415	.722
Tyler Heineman	4.1	.595	.106	.028	.075	.318	.855	.219	.295	.324	.619
Adam Frazier	4.0	.594	.135	.012	.068	.310	.860	.225	.297	.327	.623

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.6	.611	.146	.014	.133	.702	1.140	.232	.355	.379	.734
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.672	.210	.006	.292	.715	.766	.314	.432	.607	1.038
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.611	.166	.009	.208	.517	.712	.261	.364	.473	.837
Jose Altuve	4.3	.693	.164	.018	.164	.391	.810	.266	.337	.442	.779
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.532	.151	.034	.173	.381	.975	.234	.308	.428	.736
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.460	.137	.027	.167	.464	1.259	.219	.316	.412	.728
Cam Smith	4.0	.546	.141	.031	.150	.359	1.013	.242	.320	.424	.744
Nick Allen	3.9	.630	.146	.006	.051	.329	.785	.236	.307	.324	.631
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.560	.133	.006	.098	.281	.764	.230	.293	.357	.650

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections