Athletics vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · J.T. Ginn vs Hayden Wesneski · 72°F

0.2% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

38.0%

Houston Astros win

62.0%

Fair line (home)

-163

Proj. total

9.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.26)Houston Astros (mean 5.24)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.49

Over

54.7%

Under

37.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	38.0%	+159	+163
Houston Astros	62.0%	-174	-163

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
J.T. Ginn RHP · Athletics	4.6	3.9	5.2	2.0	2.6
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	5.5	4.9	5.5	1.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

J.T. Ginn4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Hayden Wesneski4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.740	.184	.024	.169	.320	1.422	.258	.320	.429	.749
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.780	.193	.016	.125	.341	.607	.265	.330	.407	.737
Zack Gelof	4.5	.585	.173	.012	.210	.377	1.287	.240	.309	.442	.751
Carlos Cortes	4.4	.604	.196	.012	.169	.372	.865	.246	.315	.428	.743
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.553	.164	.013	.190	.407	1.115	.237	.312	.434	.746
Tommy White	4.2	.702	.163	.010	.141	.190	.764	.256	.297	.409	.706
Jonah Heim	4.1	.557	.138	.004	.157	.296	.812	.229	.291	.393	.684
Donovan Walton	4.0	.596	.146	.012	.108	.355	.705	.242	.319	.381	.700
Max Muncy	3.8	.500	.147	.018	.141	.235	1.213	.227	.285	.397	.682

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.7	.829	.188	.018	.182	.421	.801	.287	.357	.468	.825
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.729	.224	.004	.292	.718	.723	.329	.444	.620	1.064
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.654	.185	.011	.209	.539	.654	.277	.382	.495	.877
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.587	.177	.034	.181	.397	.981	.249	.324	.449	.773
Christian Walker	4.3	.555	.174	.009	.218	.410	1.002	.253	.338	.478	.815
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.764	.193	.009	.180	.198	.657	.292	.331	.483	.814
Cam Smith	4.0	.614	.156	.031	.149	.373	.951	.262	.340	.446	.786
Raynel Delgado	3.9	.685	.160	.025	.068	.297	.851	.260	.324	.375	.699
Nick Allen	3.8	.671	.153	.008	.054	.319	.722	.255	.324	.351	.675

Data notes: home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 47 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections