Athletics vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Jacob Lopez vs Hunter Brown · 72°F

0.6% edge · Houston Astros

Athletics win

30.7%

Houston Astros win

69.3%

Fair line (home)

-226

Proj. total

9.51

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.89)Houston Astros (mean 5.62)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.51

Over

55.0%

Under

37.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	30.7%	+213	+226
Houston Astros	69.3%	-236	-226

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.3	3.9	4.7	2.1	2.7
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	5.7	4.7	1.8	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Lopez4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Hunter Brown4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.687	.169	.024	.133	.368	1.579	.238	.310	.383	.693
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.745	.187	.017	.110	.391	.681	.257	.332	.390	.722
Zack Gelof	4.5	.572	.168	.011	.185	.404	1.403	.232	.308	.417	.725
Carlos Cortes	4.4	.583	.183	.012	.143	.416	.992	.235	.314	.397	.711
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.525	.154	.011	.164	.434	1.237	.224	.306	.400	.706
Tommy White	4.2	.669	.155	.008	.118	.205	.854	.243	.287	.377	.664
Jonah Heim	4.0	.525	.135	.004	.135	.330	.916	.217	.286	.365	.651
Donovan Walton	3.9	.557	.142	.013	.089	.394	.796	.230	.316	.355	.671
Max Muncy	3.8	.482	.134	.014	.118	.264	1.323	.214	.279	.362	.641

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.826	.203	.015	.185	.338	.847	.287	.352	.472	.823
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.679	.200	.008	.324	.764	.751	.322	.444	.637	1.081
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.619	.172	.011	.232	.573	.681	.271	.381	.504	.886
Jose Altuve	4.4	.731	.168	.018	.180	.429	.773	.280	.356	.470	.826
Christian Walker	4.3	.529	.169	.008	.238	.435	1.051	.250	.338	.488	.826
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.544	.153	.035	.198	.413	.957	.250	.331	.470	.801
Yainer Diaz	4.0	.704	.172	.009	.189	.214	.665	.282	.325	.480	.805
Cam Smith	3.9	.559	.142	.031	.164	.375	.974	.255	.336	.453	.790
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.8	.502	.122	.010	.119	.621	.897	.238	.370	.396	.765

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections