Athletics vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Brady Basso vs Cristian Javier · 72°F

0.2% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

37.7%

Houston Astros win

62.3%

Fair line (home)

-165

Proj. total

9.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.18)Houston Astros (mean 5.17)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.35

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	37.7%	+161	+165
Houston Astros	62.3%	-176	-165

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brady Basso LHP · Athletics	2.1	1.8	2.3	0.8	1.0
Cristian Javier RHP · Houston Astros	3.6	3.4	3.4	1.3	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Brady Basso4+ 8%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Cristian Javier4+ 46%6+ 12%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.691	.168	.025	.166	.386	1.441	.246	.320	.414	.734
Carlos Cortes	4.6	.594	.192	.013	.191	.444	.932	.239	.318	.430	.749
Zack Gelof	4.5	.548	.151	.013	.230	.417	1.316	.232	.310	.446	.757
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.531	.156	.012	.204	.491	1.163	.232	.321	.436	.757
Tommy White	4.3	.688	.155	.009	.156	.216	.784	.250	.295	.409	.703
Max Muncy	4.2	.518	.149	.018	.164	.303	1.325	.223	.291	.400	.692
Donovan Walton	4.1	.576	.132	.014	.116	.419	.747	.232	.320	.373	.693
Darell Hernaiz	4.0	.641	.144	.011	.068	.383	.680	.244	.323	.348	.670
Brian Serven	3.9	.454	.118	.008	.116	.333	1.217	.201	.279	.339	.618

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.846	.212	.018	.164	.306	.826	.288	.346	.460	.805
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.728	.214	.007	.285	.711	.734	.325	.439	.610	1.049
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.642	.173	.010	.204	.524	.667	.267	.369	.476	.845
Jose Altuve	4.4	.739	.168	.018	.169	.399	.765	.278	.350	.459	.810
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.562	.165	.035	.186	.393	.961	.247	.322	.453	.775
Christian Walker	4.1	.524	.166	.008	.221	.401	.989	.249	.333	.478	.811
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.0	.545	.138	.012	.119	.608	.943	.240	.362	.394	.756
Cam Smith	3.9	.574	.150	.029	.149	.358	.947	.256	.333	.442	.775
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.610	.134	.005	.100	.272	.738	.242	.302	.368	.670

Data notes: home starter Cristian Javier: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Brady Basso: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Brady Basso: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections