Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Peter Lambert · 72°F

1.3% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

46.1%

Houston Astros win

53.9%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.72)Houston Astros (mean 4.83)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.56

Over

55.4%

Under

44.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	46.1%	+119	+117
Houston Astros	53.9%	-129	-117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	3.6	5.1	1.9	2.6
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	5.0	5.0	2.5	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Kay4+ 50%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Peter Lambert4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.803	.188	.026	.106	.471	.836	.267	.364	.399	.764
Munetaka Murakami	4.8	.479	.116	.003	.325	.761	1.465	.233	.362	.510	.872
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.547	.194	.012	.215	.607	.891	.243	.351	.460	.810
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.665	.155	.016	.165	.454	.942	.246	.326	.415	.740
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.618	.162	.030	.129	.433	1.193	.238	.322	.392	.714
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.465	.122	.007	.237	.385	1.353	.215	.298	.435	.733
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.669	.146	.004	.094	.502	.822	.250	.349	.369	.718
Tristan Peters	4.1	.589	.159	.021	.100	.367	.854	.235	.311	.371	.682
Jake Rogers	4.0	.438	.121	.018	.143	.403	1.213	.203	.291	.368	.660

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.832	.206	.018	.156	.303	.758	.284	.347	.451	.798
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.696	.223	.006	.274	.697	.683	.317	.433	.596	1.030
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.623	.176	.011	.197	.526	.619	.265	.373	.473	.846
Christian Walker	4.3	.562	.175	.009	.214	.407	.975	.249	.334	.465	.799
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.550	.161	.033	.175	.378	.902	.240	.315	.437	.753
Cam Smith	4.1	.596	.153	.032	.141	.370	.939	.249	.329	.422	.751
Nelson Velázquez	4.0	.481	.137	.011	.196	.377	1.103	.229	.309	.436	.746
Nick Allen	3.9	.659	.157	.007	.054	.329	.707	.247	.318	.340	.658
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.592	.130	.004	.086	.284	.686	.234	.299	.348	.648

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections