Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Sean Burke vs Ronel Blanco · 84°F

9.0% edge · Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox win

41.5%

Houston Astros win

58.5%

Fair line (home)

-141

Proj. total

10.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.78)Houston Astros (mean 5.35)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.13

Over

59.5%

Under

40.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	41.5%	-106	+141
Houston Astros	58.5%	-102	-141

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	4.7	5.2	2.3	3.0
Ronel Blanco RHP · Houston Astros	4.6	4.5	4.4	2.0	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Sean Burke4+ 69%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Ronel Blanco4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.797	.180	.025	.119	.463	.867	.266	.358	.405	.763
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.459	.109	.003	.349	.747	1.509	.234	.360	.529	.888
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.536	.186	.008	.233	.602	.906	.243	.350	.470	.820
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.662	.150	.016	.176	.450	.965	.250	.329	.426	.755
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.464	.122	.007	.258	.398	1.432	.216	.297	.448	.745
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.571	.194	.011	.222	.285	.976	.252	.308	.475	.782
Tristan Peters	4.2	.593	.171	.022	.110	.370	.906	.238	.312	.383	.695
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.643	.143	.004	.099	.477	.834	.251	.347	.378	.725
Drew Romo	4.0	.492	.116	.005	.147	.248	1.053	.208	.266	.363	.629

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.793	.201	.015	.199	.321	.887	.281	.342	.474	.817
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.654	.191	.006	.342	.744	.789	.316	.436	.642	1.078
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.596	.161	.011	.233	.546	.713	.262	.369	.493	.862
Jose Altuve	4.4	.678	.158	.016	.199	.410	.825	.268	.342	.469	.811
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.3	.532	.133	.012	.137	.657	1.065	.228	.354	.387	.741
Christian Walker	4.2	.486	.143	.007	.250	.400	1.063	.239	.323	.484	.806
Yainer Diaz	4.0	.679	.175	.008	.196	.199	.693	.277	.317	.481	.798
Taylor Trammell	3.9	.424	.123	.027	.175	.475	1.202	.220	.323	.426	.749
Cam Smith	3.8	.521	.134	.028	.159	.352	.968	.247	.327	.443	.770

Data notes: home starter Ronel Blanco: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ronel Blanco: only 34 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections