Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Davis Martin vs Hayden Wesneski · 84°F

0.1% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

43.9%

Houston Astros win

56.1%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

9.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.80)Houston Astros (mean 5.19)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.99

Over

59.1%

Under

40.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	43.9%	+124	+128
Houston Astros	56.1%	-134	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Davis Martin RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	3.9	5.3	2.0	2.8
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	5.0	4.7	5.1	1.8	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Davis Martin4+ 55%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Hayden Wesneski4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.822	.183	.025	.126	.423	.833	.272	.359	.416	.774
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.474	.115	.003	.360	.667	1.488	.237	.351	.536	.887
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.555	.199	.011	.236	.539	.891	.249	.345	.481	.826
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.695	.161	.016	.184	.395	.922	.258	.328	.441	.768
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.634	.169	.030	.144	.377	1.192	.246	.320	.413	.732
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.474	.127	.008	.258	.344	1.358	.223	.297	.459	.756
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.689	.143	.004	.103	.455	.820	.255	.344	.379	.724
Tristan Peters	4.1	.609	.164	.023	.118	.321	.865	.246	.313	.398	.710
Drew Romo	4.0	.506	.124	.006	.156	.215	1.021	.215	.266	.378	.645

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.834	.221	.015	.186	.284	.785	.290	.347	.477	.824
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.692	.217	.006	.317	.679	.717	.321	.432	.629	1.061
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.634	.167	.014	.231	.505	.649	.271	.370	.500	.871
Jose Altuve	4.4	.725	.167	.014	.178	.385	.742	.275	.345	.460	.805
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.555	.154	.032	.198	.365	.932	.244	.315	.455	.770
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.484	.144	.027	.183	.453	1.169	.230	.324	.435	.758
Cam Smith	4.0	.580	.151	.028	.160	.349	.943	.252	.328	.440	.768
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.9	.536	.127	.010	.121	.562	.910	.238	.355	.391	.746
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.595	.124	.004	.103	.267	.724	.234	.293	.359	.652

Data notes: home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hayden Wesneski: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections