Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Cristian Javier · 84°F

1.6% edge · Houston Astros

Arizona Diamondbacks win

44.7%

Houston Astros win

55.3%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

11.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.37)Houston Astros (mean 5.68)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.05

Over

57.9%

Under

32.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	44.7%	+112	+124
Houston Astros	55.3%	-121	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.2	4.0	6.1	2.2	3.4
Cristian Javier RHP · Houston Astros	3.5	2.8	3.8	1.8	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Merrill Kelly4+ 58%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Cristian Javier4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.782	.156	.046	.128	.693	.663	.264	.375	.415	.789
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.557	.168	.104	.250	.605	1.040	.259	.362	.530	.892
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.791	.214	.012	.176	.527	.797	.287	.373	.472	.845
Ketel Marte	4.6	.665	.176	.022	.267	.496	.774	.278	.364	.529	.894
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.599	.169	.023	.172	.657	.932	.252	.364	.443	.807
Nolan Arenado	4.4	.610	.164	.011	.209	.377	.805	.250	.322	.454	.776
Max Kepler	4.3	.576	.165	.015	.158	.435	.920	.239	.323	.414	.738
Tim Tawa	4.2	.544	.146	.013	.185	.348	1.049	.234	.303	.426	.729
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.1	.570	.165	.022	.094	.387	1.137	.235	.320	.371	.691

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.877	.228	.013	.194	.297	.782	.298	.351	.488	.839
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.745	.225	.012	.311	.718	.672	.332	.442	.636	1.078
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.686	.189	.012	.222	.544	.595	.283	.381	.506	.887
Jose Altuve	4.4	.772	.182	.014	.180	.388	.707	.285	.352	.472	.824
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.598	.178	.033	.214	.374	.885	.261	.329	.486	.815
Christian Walker	4.2	.579	.172	.007	.226	.370	.937	.259	.333	.487	.820
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.517	.161	.026	.176	.465	1.094	.244	.336	.449	.785
Yainer Diaz	4.0	.744	.191	.009	.172	.180	.601	.293	.329	.484	.813
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.9	.548	.136	.011	.120	.567	.849	.248	.364	.406	.770

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections