Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Ethan Pecko · 83°F

3.3% edge · Houston Astros

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.4%

Houston Astros win

52.6%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

10.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.44)Houston Astros (mean 5.35)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.79

Over

55.5%

Under

34.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.4%	-107	+111
Houston Astros	52.6%	-101	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.1	3.1	4.9	1.2	2.5
Ethan Pecko RHP · Houston Astros	4.2	3.0	4.7	2.1	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Ethan Pecko4+ 36%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	5.0	.707	.197	.026	.184	.703	.939	.263	.371	.452	.823
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.805	.162	.049	.119	.664	.607	.274	.380	.422	.802
Gabriel Moreno	4.8	.826	.222	.013	.153	.542	.751	.291	.376	.460	.837
Ketel Marte	4.6	.702	.196	.027	.241	.497	.718	.285	.369	.522	.891
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.556	.157	.100	.209	.553	.934	.261	.360	.512	.871
Nolan Arenado	4.4	.658	.171	.013	.187	.373	.745	.256	.325	.445	.770
Max Kepler	4.3	.610	.172	.015	.150	.432	.875	.246	.327	.416	.743
Tim Tawa	4.2	.570	.160	.017	.181	.345	1.030	.242	.309	.433	.742
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.1	.595	.173	.024	.099	.398	1.086	.245	.328	.387	.715

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.879	.229	.016	.180	.248	.794	.298	.348	.482	.830
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.751	.223	.010	.298	.620	.685	.328	.428	.619	1.047
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.670	.194	.010	.214	.467	.601	.278	.370	.497	.867
Jose Altuve	4.4	.767	.185	.013	.166	.330	.705	.282	.342	.459	.802
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.602	.172	.033	.194	.324	.887	.256	.318	.466	.785
Christian Walker	4.2	.567	.175	.007	.221	.338	.923	.258	.330	.484	.814
Yainer Diaz	4.1	.757	.195	.008	.182	.155	.584	.294	.326	.489	.816
Taylor Trammell	3.9	.487	.149	.026	.154	.391	1.061	.233	.318	.422	.740
Cam Smith	3.8	.580	.148	.035	.148	.292	.873	.261	.326	.452	.778

Data notes: home starter Ethan Pecko: only 36 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ethan Pecko: only 22 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections