Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Hunter Brown · 72°F

2.1% edge · Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox win

38.9%

Houston Astros win

61.1%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

9.22

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.17)Houston Astros (mean 5.05)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.22

Over

52.0%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	38.9%	+139	+157
Houston Astros	61.1%	-151	-157

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Luis Castillo RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	4.0	5.3	1.8	2.8
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	6.0	4.5	2.3	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Luis Castillo4+ 59%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Hunter Brown4+ 86%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.773	.179	.023	.096	.455	.945	.257	.353	.380	.733
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.434	.106	.004	.273	.726	1.627	.209	.338	.449	.787
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.533	.181	.010	.181	.579	1.000	.230	.336	.419	.754
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.636	.154	.016	.142	.435	1.023	.237	.316	.390	.706
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.582	.162	.031	.106	.426	1.301	.227	.311	.366	.678
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.436	.125	.006	.204	.378	1.484	.202	.284	.398	.683
Chase Meidroth	4.1	.637	.133	.003	.077	.471	.922	.235	.330	.337	.667
Tristan Peters	4.0	.568	.154	.022	.087	.352	.925	.229	.303	.356	.659
Jake Rogers	3.9	.418	.117	.017	.125	.396	1.284	.195	.282	.346	.628

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.6	.810	.200	.014	.179	.278	.802	.281	.336	.460	.796
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.682	.203	.006	.319	.643	.739	.317	.423	.624	1.047
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.613	.163	.010	.227	.471	.657	.263	.358	.488	.846
Jose Altuve	4.3	.696	.160	.015	.175	.370	.756	.268	.336	.451	.787
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.526	.154	.030	.200	.351	.939	.238	.307	.451	.759
Christian Walker	4.1	.512	.152	.008	.219	.362	.984	.242	.319	.466	.785
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.451	.137	.025	.159	.425	1.167	.220	.312	.409	.721
Yainer Diaz	3.9	.654	.167	.007	.170	.171	.633	.271	.308	.459	.767
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.7	.491	.117	.012	.116	.527	.885	.232	.347	.386	.733

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections