Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Hunter Brown · 72°F

3.2% edge · Houston Astros

Kansas City Royals win

37.1%

Houston Astros win

62.9%

Fair line (home)

-169

Proj. total

9.67

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.28)Houston Astros (mean 5.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.67

Over

56.3%

Under

36.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	37.1%	+143	+169
Houston Astros	62.9%	-156	-169

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.5	4.2	6.4	1.9	3.3
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	5.3	5.0	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Michael Wacha4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Hunter Brown4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.558	.187	.018	.182	.526	1.447	.223	.313	.405	.718
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.730	.227	.020	.175	.448	.950	.276	.351	.465	.816
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.649	.187	.013	.199	.325	1.259	.251	.312	.445	.756
Maikel Garcia	4.5	.732	.206	.029	.085	.420	.808	.262	.334	.392	.726
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.606	.170	.016	.168	.450	.796	.248	.333	.431	.764
Michael Massey	4.2	.671	.188	.011	.125	.232	.854	.250	.296	.397	.694
John Rave	4.1	.546	.139	.024	.114	.405	1.122	.223	.304	.366	.670
Kyle Isbel	4.0	.595	.151	.029	.079	.273	.973	.230	.290	.351	.641
Isaac Collins	3.9	.508	.150	.027	.062	.475	.970	.222	.326	.337	.663

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.855	.225	.018	.175	.248	.806	.293	.341	.473	.814
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.741	.218	.008	.292	.636	.681	.326	.429	.614	1.043
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.681	.192	.012	.211	.464	.592	.281	.370	.499	.869
Jose Altuve	4.3	.769	.182	.015	.164	.326	.688	.284	.344	.460	.804
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.799	.195	.010	.189	.168	.609	.295	.327	.488	.815
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.583	.165	.036	.189	.298	.812	.256	.315	.468	.783
Christian Walker	4.0	.543	.165	.009	.219	.323	.877	.258	.327	.489	.816
Cam Smith	3.9	.592	.138	.044	.166	.285	.857	.263	.324	.466	.790
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.8	.544	.132	.010	.114	.493	.835	.246	.350	.397	.748

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections