Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert · 84°F

4.6% edge · Houston Astros

Arizona Diamondbacks win

45.2%

Houston Astros win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

10.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.15)Houston Astros (mean 5.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.55

Over

63.9%

Under

29.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	45.2%	-103	+121
Houston Astros	54.8%	-105	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.3	4.2	6.1	2.1	3.3
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	4.0	5.6	2.2	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 61%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Peter Lambert4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.799	.167	.049	.123	.668	.643	.271	.378	.422	.801
Ketel Marte	4.8	.721	.198	.028	.249	.524	.758	.283	.370	.520	.891
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.816	.219	.013	.155	.538	.765	.292	.379	.464	.843
Nolan Arenado	4.6	.665	.182	.013	.201	.394	.805	.256	.328	.451	.779
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.556	.161	.096	.217	.563	.943	.267	.369	.528	.898
Tommy Troy	4.4	.662	.158	.030	.113	.393	1.069	.245	.319	.386	.705
James McCann	4.3	.642	.172	.006	.159	.248	1.081	.248	.301	.415	.716
Ildemaro Vargas	4.2	.707	.149	.043	.097	.249	.484	.258	.310	.395	.705
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.532	.160	.024	.145	.319	1.143	.235	.305	.410	.715

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.882	.226	.014	.182	.279	.803	.298	.349	.482	.830
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.741	.218	.014	.308	.692	.675	.333	.439	.636	1.076
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.672	.181	.010	.218	.533	.588	.279	.377	.500	.877
Jose Altuve	4.4	.763	.187	.015	.171	.376	.698	.286	.352	.470	.821
Christian Walker	4.3	.589	.183	.009	.233	.369	.941	.263	.334	.496	.830
Nelson Velázquez	4.2	.519	.157	.008	.227	.370	1.148	.242	.314	.468	.782
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.562	.159	.030	.191	.354	.844	.256	.325	.471	.795
Cam Smith	4.0	.603	.154	.037	.157	.328	.895	.265	.333	.461	.793
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.625	.141	.005	.106	.276	.693	.248	.307	.381	.688

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections