Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Miguel Ullola · 83°F

4.8% edge · Houston Astros

Kansas City Royals win

36.8%

Houston Astros win

63.2%

Fair line (home)

-172

Proj. total

10.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.50)Houston Astros (mean 5.69)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.2

Over

50.3%

Under

39.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	36.8%	+136	+172
Houston Astros	63.2%	-148	-172

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Seth Lugo RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.1	3.9	6.0	2.0	3.2
Miguel Ullola RHP · Houston Astros	2.2	2.3	1.9	1.0	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Seth Lugo4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Miguel Ullola4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.533	.184	.018	.223	.559	1.417	.228	.323	.440	.763
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.698	.221	.021	.214	.492	.883	.279	.362	.498	.860
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.628	.182	.014	.234	.338	1.229	.254	.318	.473	.792
Maikel Garcia	4.5	.727	.197	.029	.101	.440	.763	.264	.340	.404	.744
Michael Massey	4.3	.678	.187	.012	.146	.262	.850	.252	.302	.413	.715
Salvador Perez	4.2	.597	.142	.005	.203	.232	.935	.241	.297	.435	.732
John Rave	4.1	.508	.140	.021	.127	.451	1.099	.218	.307	.372	.679
Kyle Isbel	4.0	.591	.149	.031	.093	.291	.935	.234	.297	.366	.662
Isaac Collins	3.9	.502	.142	.023	.074	.496	.956	.221	.331	.344	.675

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.894	.224	.016	.190	.263	.785	.302	.353	.490	.843
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.749	.227	.010	.310	.682	.677	.336	.444	.640	1.085
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.697	.193	.011	.225	.499	.575	.288	.383	.515	.898
Jose Altuve	4.4	.786	.186	.016	.177	.355	.685	.290	.353	.477	.830
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.819	.204	.009	.190	.186	.604	.299	.335	.493	.828
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.608	.182	.036	.189	.339	.818	.265	.330	.480	.810
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.519	.164	.029	.165	.442	1.070	.244	.335	.444	.779
Cam Smith	4.0	.603	.151	.043	.176	.316	.866	.270	.336	.482	.818
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.9	.565	.131	.011	.125	.519	.829	.253	.361	.413	.774

Data notes: home starter Miguel Ullola: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Miguel Ullola: only 15 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections