Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Daniel Lynch IV vs Cristian Javier · 84°F

0.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

40.4%

Houston Astros win

59.6%

Fair line (home)

-148

Proj. total

10.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.76)Houston Astros (mean 5.48)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.25

Over

50.9%

Under

39.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	40.4%	+145	+148
Houston Astros	59.6%	-158	-148

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Daniel Lynch IV LHP · Kansas City Royals	2.1	1.3	2.5	0.8	1.2
Cristian Javier RHP · Houston Astros	3.7	3.1	3.8	1.5	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Daniel Lynch IV4+ 3%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Cristian Javier4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.559	.194	.020	.255	.548	1.323	.242	.332	.477	.810
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.712	.222	.024	.246	.462	.846	.287	.363	.526	.889
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.6	.625	.184	.015	.225	.499	.752	.258	.346	.477	.823
Salvador Perez	4.5	.645	.162	.006	.236	.233	.932	.251	.302	.462	.764
Michael Massey	4.4	.703	.185	.011	.166	.236	.807	.259	.303	.430	.734
Nick Loftin	4.3	.604	.169	.023	.120	.443	.753	.243	.330	.395	.725
John Rave	4.2	.536	.140	.025	.146	.425	1.046	.228	.310	.396	.707
Josh Rojas	4.0	.574	.163	.009	.094	.358	.878	.229	.302	.355	.657
Isaac Collins	3.9	.519	.150	.024	.084	.490	.923	.229	.334	.361	.696

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.865	.212	.016	.173	.302	.786	.292	.351	.468	.819
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.724	.219	.011	.293	.737	.670	.328	.446	.622	1.068
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.668	.179	.011	.219	.567	.573	.281	.390	.506	.896
Jose Altuve	4.4	.764	.193	.015	.163	.393	.704	.286	.357	.465	.822
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.809	.204	.010	.187	.203	.616	.298	.336	.491	.827
Christian Walker	4.2	.568	.167	.009	.222	.387	.889	.259	.339	.487	.825
Cam Smith	4.1	.599	.154	.046	.169	.350	.901	.264	.337	.469	.805
Daulton Varsho	4.0	.546	.158	.035	.171	.345	.785	.254	.325	.460	.785
Jorge Barrosa	3.9	.567	.168	.015	.080	.326	.883	.238	.311	.364	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections