Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Martín Pérez vs Hunter Brown · 72°F

1.2% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

43.7%

Houston Astros win

56.3%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.45)Houston Astros (mean 4.84)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.29

Over

52.5%

Under

39.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	43.7%	+131	+129
Houston Astros	56.3%	-142	-129

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.3	3.1	5.0	1.8	2.5
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	5.3	4.9	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Martín Pérez4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Hunter Brown4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.752	.160	.009	.188	.470	1.107	.258	.338	.431	.769
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.671	.160	.013	.197	.653	1.156	.260	.371	.455	.825
Matt Olson	4.6	.556	.181	.006	.220	.571	1.283	.241	.341	.455	.796
Michael Harris II	4.5	.735	.197	.017	.181	.205	1.016	.266	.303	.448	.751
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.759	.188	.017	.084	.267	.645	.257	.307	.373	.681
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.635	.168	.012	.134	.336	.760	.245	.312	.398	.710
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.490	.149	.013	.142	.470	1.130	.218	.314	.384	.697
Brewer Hicklen	4.0	.494	.131	.024	.134	.314	1.354	.213	.286	.372	.657
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.546	.127	.009	.070	.475	.896	.220	.320	.324	.644

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.6	.838	.208	.021	.161	.271	.835	.286	.338	.456	.794
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.708	.219	.008	.269	.677	.689	.318	.428	.593	1.021
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.634	.171	.010	.199	.504	.599	.265	.364	.471	.834
Jose Altuve	4.3	.746	.179	.012	.140	.354	.722	.274	.339	.433	.772
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.782	.186	.009	.163	.175	.639	.284	.318	.457	.775
Christian Walker	4.1	.555	.158	.008	.188	.354	.918	.245	.320	.445	.764
Cam Smith	4.0	.589	.144	.044	.147	.321	.929	.254	.321	.439	.760
Nick Allen	3.9	.690	.155	.007	.052	.305	.715	.254	.317	.345	.662
Brice Matthews	3.8	.509	.121	.025	.127	.301	1.126	.228	.296	.389	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections